US Natgas Within Monthly Range Ahead of EIA Data

Front month US Henry Hub is just above the previous close after falling back yesterday as prices hold within the 2$/mmtu to 2.25$/mmbtu range since 23 March. With supply holding steady and strong LNG exports, prices are likely to depend on temperatures throughout the summer period.

• US Natgas MAY 23 up 1% at 2.11$/mmbtu
• The latest weather forecast is similar to yesterday with above normal temperatures expected in central and eastern areas but below normal in the west. Domestic demand was yesterday estimated just below normal at 61.9bcf/d according to Bloomberg.
• Earlier this week EIA forecast prices at 2.65$/mmbtu in Q2 2023 rising to slightly above 3$/mmbtu in Q3 2023 due to increased demand and flat production.
• The latest EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending 7 Apr will be released this afternoon at 10:30ET (15:30GMT). The expectation is for the first build of the year of +28bcf following on from the -23bcf draw last week. The 5-year average for this time of year is a build of +16bcf. EIA forecast inventories will increase by 1,985bcf from April through October.
• Flows to LNG export terminals are today estimated at 14.47bcf/d according to Bloomberg but similar estimates in the last couple of days have been revised back down to 14bcf/d.
• Natural gas production was yesterday stable at 100.2bcf/d while export flows to Mexico are also steady at 5.5bcf/d.