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Free AccessUS NFIB Survey: Feb Optimism Index +0.5 to 101.7 - Text
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are excerpts from the National Federation
of Independent Business' monthly Small Business Optimism index published
Tuesday:
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index improved modestly in February,
increasing 0.5 points to 101.7. Views about future business conditions and the
current period as a good time to expand improved as did plans to make capital
outlays. Earnings trends weakened as a million laid off workers and others
affected by the shutdown cut back on spending. The loss of sales falls right to
the bottom line. Worker compensation and selling prices were lower in February
than they were in January, but job openings rebounded remaining at historically
high levels. The Uncertainty Index fell 1 point to 85, a small decline but still
showing a lot of residual uncertainty from the government shutdown.
"Small business owners are thankful to have the government shutdown in the
rearview mirror but need more certainty about the future," said NFIB President
and CEO Juanita D. Duggan. "Small businesses put their money where their
expectations are as we've seen when they get tax and regulatory relief. The best
thing Washington can do for the small business half of the economy is to
continue the policies - tax cuts and deregulation - that leave them with more
resources to invest and find qualified workers."
Small business owners who expect better business conditions improved five
percentage points and those viewing the current period as a good time to expand
increased two points in February. Twenty-seven percent plan capital outlays in
the next few months, up one point. Plans to invest were most frequent in
wholesale trades (43 percent), manufacturing (39 percent), construction (32
percent), and agriculture (31 percent).
"Owners still want to grow and expect they could sell more if they could
hire employees to produce more. Small businesses want to expand in this growing
economy but only if they can find qualified applicants for their open
positions," said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. "On the positive side,
now that the government is funded, owners should be getting back to business
with the rebound in consumer sentiment."
The frequency of reports of positive profit trends fell four points to a
net negative nine percent reporting quarter on quarter profit improvements, the
weakest reading since 2017. Forty-one percent of those reporting weaker profits
blamed sales, 22 percent cited lower selling prices, and nine percent blamed
labor costs. For those reporting higher profits, 50 percent credited sales
volumes. Thirty-three percent credited higher prices for the results. The cost
of materials was not an issue.
The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell two points to
a net 13 percent, seasonally adjusted. Unadjusted, ten percent (unchanged)
reported lower average selling prices and 23 percent (down one point) reported
higher average prices. Seasonally adjusted, a net 26 percent plan price hikes
(down one point). With some sales weakness and concerns about the economy,
likely fewer than half will actually post price hikes.
As reported in February's NFIB Jobs Report, job creation among small
businesses broke the 45-year record in February with a net addition of 0.52
workers per firm. The previous record was in May 1998 at 0.51 workers per firm.
The percent of owners citing labor costs as their most important problem also
hit an all-time high, with 10 percent of owners reporting labor costs as their
biggest problem. Reports of higher worker compensation fell five points to a net
31 percent of all firms. Uncertainty is not conducive to making permanent
compensation commitments.
Optimism Components: Seas Adj Level % Change
PLANS TO INCREASE EMPLOYMENT 16 -2
PLANT TO MAKE CAPITAL OUTLAYS 27 2
PLANS TO INCREASE INVENTORIES 1 0
EXPECT ECONOMY TO IMPROVE 11 5
EXPECT RETAIL SALES HIGHER 16 0
CURRENT INVENTORY -2 1
CURRENT JOB OPENINGS 37 2
EXPECTED CREDIT CONDITIONS -5 0
NOW A GOOD TIME TO EXPAND 22 2
EARNINGS TRENDS -9 -4
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAUDS$,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.