US Open

US equities & rates are unch. ahead of Q4 GDP (1:30pm Lon/8:30am ET) that will include 4Q core PCE (c+2% QoQ) from which will we get a read into the trend ahead of tomorrow's MoM Dec print (c+0.2% p+0.1%). Weekly claims (that has recently been very strong - though analysts have been looking at NSA numbers for potential weakness) will come with it - Our Economist flags continuing is a reference period for payrolls.

The US data comes between ECB decision/statement release (1:15pm Lon) & Lagarde's pressor 30min later. The former is not expected to be a market mover (unch rate/statement) but the latter (in particular Q&A) is where focus will be. As we mentioned yet to strong divergence in ECB/Fed pricing & belly rates between the two are still holding range-bound this year - today may be the next test for that. IG spreads have moved in tandem as well YTD.

On top of macro-heavy morning we have slew of earnings including American & Southwest Airlines - former up +4.3% in pre-market after FY24 EPS guidance at $2.25-$3.25 (c$2.22). For $IG investors health insurer Humana (Baa2, BBB+, BBB; Stable) is under focus (again - after last weeks pre-earnings warning) falling -14% in pre-market after it posted a loss in 4Q (against c) & cuts forward guidance to $16/share (c$29) - its dragging healthcare insurer comps (all $IG issuers) along with it including UnitedHealth & Elevance.