MNI: SOME FOMC MEMBERS PREFERRED 25BP CUT

MNI BRIEF: ECB Looks At Impact Of China Trade Freeze

MNI BRIEF: EC Says EV Talks With China At Important Moment

MNI BRIEF: Mexico Inflation Falls To 4.58% In September

MNI BRIEF: MNI BRIEF: Brazil's September Inflation Up To 4.42%

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BTP Auction on Friday

US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR +5.81M TO 422.7M OCT 04 WK

MNI:US AUG WHOLESALE INV 0.1%; SALES -0.1%

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Core Goods Prices Seen Rising For First Time Since Feb [3/3]

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
USNorth AmericaBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets
  • Core goods CPI prices should see a rare monthly increase in September, the first since February and before that May 2023.
  • Used car prices play a large role in expectations here, seen increasing circa 0.9% M/M after a string of heavy declines including -1.0% in August. Wholesale used vehicle prices indicate potential for a further increase in October but gains could slow after that.
  • Core goods ex-used cars are again worth watching, after another -0.1% M/M decline in August despite higher input costs amidst a relative tightening in supply chain pressures.
  • The NY Fed’s global supply chain pressures index has eased a touch since August, falling from 0.20 to 0.13, but that’s still meaningfully tighter than the 0.45 standard deviations below historical averages seen through 1H24.
  • With core PPI readings also mostly running hotter than core goods, an acceleration beyond used cars would support the anecdotal evidence of firmer price pressures (latest S&P Global US PMI comments on the next page) whilst on the flip side a further deceleration here would be a dovish sign for pricing power.

 

A graph of the fall of the stock market Description automatically generated with medium confidence

176 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Core goods CPI prices should see a rare monthly increase in September, the first since February and before that May 2023.
  • Used car prices play a large role in expectations here, seen increasing circa 0.9% M/M after a string of heavy declines including -1.0% in August. Wholesale used vehicle prices indicate potential for a further increase in October but gains could slow after that.
  • Core goods ex-used cars are again worth watching, after another -0.1% M/M decline in August despite higher input costs amidst a relative tightening in supply chain pressures.
  • The NY Fed’s global supply chain pressures index has eased a touch since August, falling from 0.20 to 0.13, but that’s still meaningfully tighter than the 0.45 standard deviations below historical averages seen through 1H24.
  • With core PPI readings also mostly running hotter than core goods, an acceleration beyond used cars would support the anecdotal evidence of firmer price pressures (latest S&P Global US PMI comments on the next page) whilst on the flip side a further deceleration here would be a dovish sign for pricing power.

 

A graph of the fall of the stock market Description automatically generated with medium confidence