October 09, 2024 18:52 GMT
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Supercore CPI Seen Modestly Easing Slightly [2/3]
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
- Core non-housing service CPI inflation is expected to ease modestly in September from the 0.33% in August, with seven analysts eyeing an average 0.27% M/M from a range of 0.20-0.34.
- If realized, two months more meaningfully above a rate consistent with 2% inflation should continue to be seen in the context of recently following two extremely soft months averaging -0.05% M/M in May and June.
- A readthrough to supercore PCE is hard to do in advance of CPI and PPI inputs, with some volatile CPI-specific categories having an outsized impact on the narrower basket (see earlier section on the expected main sequential drivers). Supercore PCE has generally seen less volatility though, at 0.16% M/M in August and having averaged 2.5% annualized over the latest three months.
126 words