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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Supercore CPI Seen Modestly Easing Slightly [2/3]

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
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  • Core non-housing service CPI inflation is expected to ease modestly in September from the 0.33% in August, with seven analysts eyeing an average 0.27% M/M from a range of 0.20-0.34.
  • If realized, two months more meaningfully above a rate consistent with 2% inflation should continue to be seen in the context of recently following two extremely soft months averaging -0.05% M/M in May and June.
  • A readthrough to supercore PCE is hard to do in advance of CPI and PPI inputs, with some volatile CPI-specific categories having an outsized impact on the narrower basket (see earlier section on the expected main sequential drivers). Supercore PCE has generally seen less volatility though, at 0.16% M/M in August and having averaged 2.5% annualized over the latest three months. 
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  • Core non-housing service CPI inflation is expected to ease modestly in September from the 0.33% in August, with seven analysts eyeing an average 0.27% M/M from a range of 0.20-0.34.
  • If realized, two months more meaningfully above a rate consistent with 2% inflation should continue to be seen in the context of recently following two extremely soft months averaging -0.05% M/M in May and June.
  • A readthrough to supercore PCE is hard to do in advance of CPI and PPI inputs, with some volatile CPI-specific categories having an outsized impact on the narrower basket (see earlier section on the expected main sequential drivers). Supercore PCE has generally seen less volatility though, at 0.16% M/M in August and having averaged 2.5% annualized over the latest three months. 
A graph of blue and orange lines Description automatically generated