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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Waller Looks For 100k Distortion To Payrolls, Others Less

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Fed Governor Waller’s estimated on Oct 14 that the combined impact from strikes and weather disruption could reduce October payrolls by 100k.
  • That 100k impact is likely right at the top end of analyst expectations as it would imply a ~60k hit from the weather.
  • Some specific analyst estimates from weather-only disruption: Barclays 50-60k, GS 40-50k, Citi 30-40k, Morgan Stanley imply circa 35k, Deutsche Bank 25k and UBS only 10k. 

See the full MNI Payrolls Preview here: https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Nov2024_Preview_c885bc51dc.pdf

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  • Fed Governor Waller’s estimated on Oct 14 that the combined impact from strikes and weather disruption could reduce October payrolls by 100k.
  • That 100k impact is likely right at the top end of analyst expectations as it would imply a ~60k hit from the weather.
  • Some specific analyst estimates from weather-only disruption: Barclays 50-60k, GS 40-50k, Citi 30-40k, Morgan Stanley imply circa 35k, Deutsche Bank 25k and UBS only 10k. 

See the full MNI Payrolls Preview here: https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Nov2024_Preview_c885bc51dc.pdf

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