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US: Polling Miss Could Result In A Decisive Win For Trump Or Harris

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The presidential race continues to get tighter, with former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris effectively tied across all seven key swing states.   

  • Nate Cohen at the New York Times writes: “It’s hard to think of any election when so many critical states were so close in the polls at this stage,” noting that although the 2000 and 2004 elections were close, “There has never been an election with so many polls showing such a close race.”
  • Cohen adds: “In such a close race, even the slightest movement in the polls takes on outsize significance. For that same reason, even a modest error in the polls could yield a very different result. Either candidate could win decisively.”

Figure 1: Swing State Polling Averages 

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The presidential race continues to get tighter, with former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris effectively tied across all seven key swing states.   

  • Nate Cohen at the New York Times writes: “It’s hard to think of any election when so many critical states were so close in the polls at this stage,” noting that although the 2000 and 2004 elections were close, “There has never been an election with so many polls showing such a close race.”
  • Cohen adds: “In such a close race, even the slightest movement in the polls takes on outsize significance. For that same reason, even a modest error in the polls could yield a very different result. Either candidate could win decisively.”

Figure 1: Swing State Polling Averages 

Keep reading...Show less