US Preparing 'Final' Ukraine Aid Package Before Funding Expires

White House National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby has told reporters that the United States is planning one more aid package for Ukraine, to be delivered in late December, before Congress must act to replenish funds.

• Kirby: "When that one's done... we will have no more replenishment authority available to us and we're going to need Congress to act without delay."
• There is a lack of official clarity over funds available for Ukraine. Despite comments from the White House warning that the pot is empty, that pot refers to Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which funds long-term arms contracts.
• There is still understood to be around USD$4.4 billion available via Presidential Drawdown Authority. This is due to a supposed accountancy error from the Pentagon which overvalued some transferred stock.
• This PDA fund could likely continue to fund Ukraine through much of next year but, as stocks are transferred from existing DOD supplies, it could impact stock available to the US military and pose a risk to US national security in the event of another conflict, or escalation of an existing conflict.
• To replenish the USAI, Congress must authorise some, or all of, President Biden's ~USD$110 billion national security supplemental package. The pathway for that package is tied to a politically sensitive package of US-Mexico border reforms which appear unlikely to reach a resolution before the new year.