Oct-18 Sep-18 Aug-18 Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18
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UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1 215/210 204/208 214/214 215/223 222/226 211/216
wk 2 210/212 202/206 212/216 208/221 221/225 223/214
wk 3 215/212 215/206 210/214 217/218 218/221 234/220
wk 4 207/207 213/212 219/214 228/222 223/223
wk 5 205/210 232/225
Nonfarm Payrolls +134k +270k +165k +208k +244k
Private Payrolls +121k +254k +137k +192k +260k
Mfg Payroll +18k +5k +22k +21k +23k
Unemployment 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% 3.8%
Avg Wkly Hours 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.6 34.5
Avg Hours - Mfg 40.8 40.9 41.0 41.0 40.8
Aggr Hours Index +0.1% +0.3% -0.2% +0.5% +0.2%
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg -0.1% -0.2% +0.2% +0.4% -0.1%
Avg Hourly Earnings +0.3% +0.3% +0.3% +0.2% +0.3%
Final Demand PPI +0.2% -0.1% Flat +0.3% +0.5%
excl food & energy +0.2% -0.1% +0.1% +0.3% +0.3%
excl food, energy, trade +0.4% +0.1% +0.3% +0.3% +0.1%
CPI +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2%
excl food & energy +0.1% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.2%
Import Prices +0.5 -0.4% -0.1% Flat +0.9%
non-petro import prices Flat -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% +0.2%
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index 66.9 72.1 73.2 76.8 79.5
PCE Price Index M/M +0.1% +0.1% +0.1% +0.1% +0.2%
PCE Price Index Y/Y +2.0% +2.2% +2.3% +2.3% +2.3%
Core PCE Price Index M/M +0.2% Flat +0.2% +0.1% +0.2%
Core PCE Price Index Y/Y +2.0% +2.0% +2.0% +2.0% +2.0%
Treasury Budget (bn) +$119.1 -$214.1 -$76.9 -$74.9 -$146.8
Consumer Credit (bn) +$20.1 +$16.6 +$8.7 +$21.9
CB Consumer Confidence 137.9 135.3 134.7 127.9 126.4 128.8
Consumer Sentiment 98.6 100.1 96.2 97.6 98.2 98.0
Car Sales (Ex GM), saar
(mn) 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.0
Truck Sales (Ex GM), Saar
(mn) 7.2 7.1 6.9 7.2 6.9
Total (Ex GM), saar (mn) 10.2 9.9 9.9 10.3 9.9
Retail Sales +0.1% +0.1% +0.6% +0.2% +1.2%
excl motor vehicles -0.1% +0.2% +0.8% +0.3% +1.4%
Personal Income +0.3% +0.3% +0.4% +0.4%
Personal Spending +0.3% +0.4% +0.4% +0.5%
ISM Mfg Index 59.8 61.3 58.1 60.2 58.7
ISM Nonmfg NMI 61.6 58.5 55.7 59.1 58.6
MNI Chicago Report 58.4 60.4 63.6 65.5 64.1 62.7
Phila Fed Mfg Index 22.2 22.9 11.9 25.7 19.9 34.4
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index 37.6 37.4 41.7 44.3 39.1 45.3
Empire State Index 19.0 25.6 22.6 25.0 20.1
KC Fed Mfg Index 8 13 14 23 28 29
Richmond Fed Mfg Index 15 29 24 20 21 16
Dallas Fed Mfg Index 29.4 28.1 30.9 32.3 36.5 26.8
Markit Mfg Index 55.6 54.7 55.3 55.4 56.4
Markit Services Index 53.5 54.8 56.0 56.5 56.8
Ind Production +0.3% +0.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.8%
Capacity Util 78.1% 78.1% 77.9% 77.8% 77.4%
Factory Orders +2.3% -0.5% +0.6% +0.4%
Factory Orders ex
transport +0.1% +0.1% +0.4% +0.8%
Durables +0.8% +4.6% -1.2% +0.9% -0.3%
Durables ex transport +0.1% +0.3% +0.2% +0.3% +0.3%
Nondurables +0.2% +0.1% +0.4% +1.1%
Mfg Shipments +0.5% Flat +1.0% +0.6%
Business Inventories +0.5% +0.7% +0.1% +0.3%
Factory +0.5% +0.8% +0.2% +0.2%
Retail +0.7% +0.6% -0.1% +0.4%
Wholesale +0.9% +0.6% +0.1% +0.3%
Housing Starts (mn) 1.201 1.268 1.184 1.177 1.329
Building Permits (mn) 1.270 1.249 1.303 1.292 1.301
NAHB Index 68 67 68 68 70
New Home Sales (k) 553 585 603 618 653
Existing Homes (mn) 5.15 5.33 5.34 5.38 5.41
Pending Home Sales Index 106.2 106.9 105.9
Construct Spending +0.1% +0.2% -0.7% +0.7%
Private Residential -0.5% -0.2% -0.7% -0.3%
Trade Balance (bn) -$53.2 -$50.1 -$45.7 -$42.6
Exports (bn) +$209.4 +$211.1 +$213.2 +$214.7
Imports (bn) +$262.7 +$261.2 +$258.9 +$257.2
Goods Only, BOP (bn) -$76.7 -$73.2 -$68.9 -$65.8
Leading Index +0.5% +0.4% +0.7% +0.5% +0.1%
Q3-18 Q2-18
GDP (chain-wt) +3.5% +4.2%
Final Sales +1.4% +5.4%
Chain prices +1.7% +3.0%
Current-dollar +4.9% +7.6%
Q2-18
Nonfarm Productivity +2.9%
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs -1.0%
Q3-18 Q2-18
ECI (q/q) +0.8% +0.6%
(a) advance report
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAUDT$,M$U$$$]
