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OPTIONS

Larger Option Pipeline

CROSS ASSET

ECB's Stournaras Buoys Bunds, EUR

GILT SUMMARY

BoE Comments Underpin Short-End Sell Off

CORN TECHS

(K1) Stabilises

US: Recap of Economic Indicators

                             Oct-18   Sep-18   Aug-18   Jul-18   Jun-18   May-18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1                        215/210  204/208  214/214  215/223  222/226  211/216
wk 2                        210/212  202/206  212/216  208/221  221/225  223/214
wk 3                        215/212  215/206  210/214  217/218  218/221  234/220
wk 4                                 207/207  213/212  219/214  228/222  223/223
wk 5                                          205/210           232/225
Nonfarm Payrolls                       +134k    +270k    +165k    +208k    +244k
Private Payrolls                       +121k    +254k    +137k    +192k    +260k
Mfg Payroll                             +18k      +5k     +22k     +21k     +23k
Unemployment                            3.7%     3.9%     3.9%     4.0%     3.8%
Avg Wkly Hours                          34.5     34.5     34.5     34.6     34.5
Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.8     40.9     41.0     41.0     40.8
Aggr Hours Index                       +0.1%    +0.3%    -0.2%    +0.5%    +0.2%
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                   -0.1%    -0.2%    +0.2%    +0.4%    -0.1%
Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.3%
Final Demand PPI                       +0.2%    -0.1%     Flat    +0.3%    +0.5%
excl food & energy                     +0.2%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.3%
excl food, energy, trade               +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%
CPI                                    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.2%
excl food & energy                     +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%
Import Prices                           +0.5    -0.4%    -0.1%     Flat    +0.9%
non-petro import prices                 Flat    -0.2%    -0.2%    -0.3%    +0.2%
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                 66.9     72.1     73.2     76.8     79.5
PCE Price Index M/M                    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%
PCE Price Index Y/Y                    +2.0%    +2.2%    +2.3%    +2.3%    +2.3%
Core PCE Price Index M/M               +0.2%     Flat    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.2%
Core PCE Price Index Y/Y               +2.0%    +2.0%    +2.0%    +2.0%    +2.0%
Treasury Budget (bn)                 +$119.1  -$214.1   -$76.9   -$74.9  -$146.8
Consumer Credit (bn)                           +$20.1   +$16.6    +$8.7   +$21.9
CB Consumer Confidence        137.9    135.3    134.7    127.9    126.4    128.8
Consumer Sentiment             98.6    100.1     96.2     97.6     98.2     98.0
Car Sales (Ex GM), saar
(mn)                                     3.0      2.8      3.0      3.1      3.0
Truck Sales (Ex GM), Saar
(mn)                                     7.2      7.1      6.9      7.2      6.9
Total (Ex GM), saar (mn)                10.2      9.9      9.9     10.3      9.9
Retail Sales                           +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.6%    +0.2%    +1.2%
excl motor vehicles                    -0.1%    +0.2%    +0.8%    +0.3%    +1.4%
Personal Income                                 +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.4%
Personal Spending                               +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.5%
ISM Mfg Index                           59.8     61.3     58.1     60.2     58.7
ISM Nonmfg NMI                          61.6     58.5     55.7     59.1     58.6
MNI Chicago Report             58.4     60.4     63.6     65.5     64.1     62.7
Phila Fed Mfg Index            22.2     22.9     11.9     25.7     19.9     34.4
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index         37.6     37.4     41.7     44.3     39.1     45.3
Empire State Index                      19.0     25.6     22.6     25.0     20.1
KC Fed Mfg Index                  8       13       14       23       28       29
Richmond Fed Mfg Index           15       29       24       20       21       16
Dallas Fed Mfg Index           29.4     28.1     30.9     32.3     36.5     26.8
Markit Mfg Index                        55.6     54.7     55.3     55.4     56.4
Markit Services Index                   53.5     54.8     56.0     56.5     56.8
Ind Production                         +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.3%    +0.6%    -0.8%
Capacity Util                          78.1%    78.1%    77.9%    77.8%    77.4%
Factory Orders                                  +2.3%    -0.5%    +0.6%    +0.4%
Factory Orders ex
transport                                       +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.8%
Durables                               +0.8%    +4.6%    -1.2%    +0.9%    -0.3%
Durables ex transport                  +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.3%    +0.3%
Nondurables                                     +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.4%    +1.1%
Mfg Shipments                                   +0.5%     Flat    +1.0%    +0.6%
Business Inventories                            +0.5%    +0.7%    +0.1%    +0.3%
Factory                                         +0.5%    +0.8%    +0.2%    +0.2%
Retail                                          +0.7%    +0.6%    -0.1%    +0.4%
Wholesale                                       +0.9%    +0.6%    +0.1%    +0.3%
Housing Starts (mn)                    1.201    1.268    1.184    1.177    1.329
Building Permits (mn)                  1.270    1.249    1.303    1.292    1.301
NAHB Index                                68       67       68       68       70
New Home Sales (k)                       553      585      603      618      653
Existing Homes (mn)                     5.15     5.33     5.34     5.38     5.41
Pending Home Sales Index                                 106.2    106.9    105.9
Construct Spending                              +0.1%    +0.2%    -0.7%    +0.7%
Private Residential                             -0.5%    -0.2%    -0.7%    -0.3%
Trade Balance (bn)                             -$53.2   -$50.1   -$45.7   -$42.6
Exports (bn)                                  +$209.4  +$211.1  +$213.2  +$214.7
Imports (bn)                                  +$262.7  +$261.2  +$258.9  +$257.2
Goods Only, BOP (bn)                           -$76.7   -$73.2   -$68.9   -$65.8
Leading Index                          +0.5%    +0.4%    +0.7%    +0.5%    +0.1%
                                                                  Q3-18    Q2-18
GDP (chain-wt)                                                    +3.5%    +4.2%
Final Sales                                                       +1.4%    +5.4%
Chain prices                                                      +1.7%    +3.0%
Current-dollar                                                    +4.9%    +7.6%
                                                                           Q2-18
Nonfarm Productivity                                                       +2.9%
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                                   -1.0%
                                                                  Q3-18    Q2-18
ECI (q/q)                                                         +0.8%    +0.6%
(a) advance report
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAUDT$,M$U$$$]