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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(H1) Fragile Outlook

US TSYS SUMMARY

Curve Lower, Flatter as Yields Reverse Off Cycle Highs

US TSY/RECAP

Yield Curve Update

STIR FUTURES

Eurodollars Futures Snapshot

USDCAD TECHS

Consolidating

AUDUSD TECHS

Probes Key Support

Trending Top 5

US: Recap of Economic Indicators 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:06 GMT Dec 31/17:06 EST Dec 31
                             Dec-18   Nov-18   Oct-18   Sep-18   Aug-18   Jul-18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1                        206/225  221/217  215/210  204/208  214/214  215/223
wk 2                        214/222  224/219  210/212  202/206  212/216  208/221
wk 3                        216/218  234/223  216/212  215/206  210/214  217/218
wk 4                                 231/228  215/214  207/207  213/212  219/214
wk 5                                          214/214           205/210
Nonfarm Payrolls                       +155k    +237k    +119k    +286k    +165k
Private Payrolls                       +161k    +251k    +117k    +267k    +137k
Mfg Payroll                             +27k     +26k     +19k     +11k     +22k
Unemployment                            3.7%     3.7%     3.7%     3.9%     3.9%
Avg Wkly Hours                          34.4     34.5     34.4     34.5     34.5
Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.8     40.8     40.8     40.9     41.0
Aggr Hours Index                       -0.2%    +0.5%    -0.3%    +0.3%    -0.2%
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                   +0.2%    +0.2%    -0.1%    -0.2%    +0.2%
Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.3%
Final Demand PPI                       +0.1%    +0.6%    +0.2%    -0.1%     Flat
excl food & energy                     +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.2%    -0.1%    +0.1%
excl food, energy, trade               +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.3%
CPI                                     Flat    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%
excl food & energy                     +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%
Import Prices                          -1.6%    +0.5%     Flat    -0.4%    -0.1%
non-petro import prices                -0.3%    +0.2%    +0.1%    -0.2%    -0.2%
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                 60.7     71.6     66.9     72.1     73.2
PCE Price Index M/M                    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.1%
PCE Price Index Y/Y                    +1.8%    +2.0%    +2.0%    +2.2%    +2.4%
Core PCE Price Index M/M               +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%     Flat    +0.2%
Core PCE Price Index Y/Y               +1.9%    +1.8%    +2.0%    +1.9%    +2.0%
Treasury Budget (bn)                 -$204.9  -$100.5  +$119.1  -$214.1   -$76.9
Consumer Credit (bn)                                    +$10.9   +$20.1   +$16.6
CB Consumer Confidence        128.1    136.4    137.9    135.3    134.7    127.9
Consumer Sentiment             98.3     97.5     98.6    100.1     96.2     97.6
Car Sales (Ex GM), saar
(mn)                                     2.9      3.2      3.0      2.8      3.0
Truck Sales (Ex GM), Saar
(mn)                                     6.9      6.9      7.2      7.1      6.9
Total (Ex GM), saar (mn)                 9.8     10.1     10.2      9.9      9.9
Retail Sales                           +0.2%    +1.1%    -0.2%    -0.1%    +0.6%
excl motor vehicles                    +0.2%    +1.0%    -0.3%    +0.1%    +0.8%
Personal Income                                 +0.5%     +0.2    +0.4%    +0.3%
Personal Spending                               +0.6%    +0.2%    +0.4%    +0.5%
ISM Mfg Index                           59.3     57.7     59.8     61.3     58.1
ISM Nonmfg NMI                          60.7     60.3     61.6     58.5     55.7
MNI Chicago Report             65.4     66.4     58.4     60.4     63.6     65.5
Phila Fed Mfg Index             9.4     12.9     22.2     22.9     11.9     25.7
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index          3.9     43.3     37.6     37.4     41.7     44.3
Empire State Index             10.9     23.3     21.1     19.0     25.6     22.6
KC Fed Mfg Index                  3       15        8       13       14       23
Richmond Fed Mfg Index           -8       14       15       29       24       20
Dallas Fed Mfg Index           -5.1     17.6     29.4     28.1     30.9     32.3
Markit Mfg Index                        55.4     55.7     55.6     54.7     55.3
Markit Services Index                   54.4     54.8     53.5     54.8     56.0
Ind Production                         +0.6%    -0.2%    +0.1%    +0.8%    +0.4%
Capacity Util                          78.5%    78.1%    78.4%    78.5%    78.0%
Factory Orders                                  -2.1%    +0.2%    +2.6%    -0.5%
Factory Orders ex
transport                                       +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.1%
Durables                               +0.8%    -4.3%     Flat    +4.7%    -1.2%
Durables ex transport                  -0.3%    +0.4%    -0.5%    +0.3%    +0.2%
Nondurables                                     +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%    +0.1%
Mfg Shipments                                   -0.1%    +0.7%    +0.7%     Flat
Business Inventories                            +0.6%    +0.5%    +0.5%    +0.7%
Factory                                         +0.1%    +0.6%    +0.1%    +0.8%
Retail                                          +0.8%    +0.1%    +0.6%    +0.6%
Wholesale                                       +0.8%    +0.7%    +0.9%    +0.6%
Housing Starts (mn)                    1.256    1.217    1.237    1.280    1.184
Building Permits (mn)                  1.328    1.265    1.270    1.249    1.303
NAHB Index                       56       60       60       68       67       68
New Home Sales (k)                                544      597      591      603
Existing Homes (mn)                     5.32     5.22     5.15     5.33     5.34
Pending Home Sales Index               101.4    102.1    104.8    104.1    106.1
Construct Spending                              -0.1%    -0.1%    -0.4%    +0.2%
Private Residential                             -0.5%    +0.1%    -2.6%    +0.7%
Trade Balance (bn)                             -$55.5   -$54.6   -$53.7   -$50.0
Exports (bn)                                  +$211.0  +$211.4  +$208.2  +$211.1
Imports (bn)                                  +$266.5  +$266.0  +$261.9  +$261.2
Goods Only, BOP (bn)                           -$78.1   -$77.3   -$76.6   -$73.2
Leading Index                          +0.2%    -0.3%    +0.5%    +0.4%    +0.7%
                                                         Q3-18
GDP (chain-wt)                                           +3.5%
Final Sales                                              +1.2%
Chain prices                                             +1.7%
Current-dollar                                           +5.0%
                                                         Q3-18
Nonfarm Productivity                                     +2.3%
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                 +0.9%
                                                         Q3-18
ECI (q/q)                                                +0.8%
(a) advance report
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]