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Free AccessMNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, November 26
MNI BRiEF: Riksbank Puts Neutral Rate In 1.5 To 3.0% Range
US: Recap of Economic Indicators
Feb-19 Jan-19 Dec-18 Nov-18 Oct-18 Sep-18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1 235/225 216/222 206/225 221/217 215/210 204/208
wk 2 239/232 212/221 217/223 224/219 210/212 202/206
wk 3 217/236 200/215 221/220 234/223 216/212 215/206
wk 4 226/229 253/220 233/219 231/228 215/214 207/207
wk 5 223/226 214/214
Nonfarm Payrolls +20k +311k +227k +196k +277k +108k
Private Payrolls +25k +308k +224k +200k +285k +108k
Mfg Payroll +4k +21k +20k +27k +29k +18k
Unemployment 3.8% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7%
Avg Wkly Hours 34.4 34.5 34.5 34.4 34.5 34.4
Avg Hours - Mfg 40.7 40.8 40.9 40.8 40.8 40.9
Aggr Hours Index -0.3% +0.3% +0.5% -0.2% +0.3% Flat
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg -0.2% Flat +0.3% +0.2% Flat -0.1%
Avg Hourly Earnings +0.4% +0.1% +0.4% +0.3% +0.2% +0.3%
Final Demand PPI +0.1% -0.1% -0.1% +0.1% +0.5% +0.1%
excl food & energy +0.1% +0.3% Flat +0.3% +0.3% +0.2%
excl food, energy, trade +0.1% +0.2% Flat +0.3% +0.1% +0.3%
CPI +0.2% Flat Flat Flat +0.3% +0.1%
excl food & energy +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.2% +0.2% +0.2%
Import Prices -0.5% -1.0% -1.7% +0.5% +0.1%
non-petro import prices -0.7% +0.3% Flat +0.2% +0.1%
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index 49.6 54.9 60.7 71.6 66.9
PCE Price Index M/M +0.1% Flat +0.2% +0.1%
PCE Price Index Y/Y +1.7% +1.8% +2.0% +2.0%
Core PCE Price Index M/M +0.2% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2%
Core PCE Price Index Y/Y +1.7% +1.8% +2.0% +2.0%
Treasury Budget (bn) -$13.5 -$204.9 -$100.5 +$119.1
Consumer Credit (bn) +$16.6 +$22.1 +$25.4 +$10.9
CB Consumer Confidence 131.4 121.7 126.6 136.4 137.9 135.3
Consumer Sentiment 93.8 91.2 98.3 97.5 98.6 100.1
Car Sales Ex GM,Ford, saar
(mn) 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.5
Truck Sales Ex GM,Ford,
Saar (mn) 4.6 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.3
Total Ex GM,Ford, saar
(mn) 7.1 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.8
Retail Sales +0.2% -1.6% Flat +1.0% -0.2%
excl motor vehicles +0.9% -2.1% -0.1% +0.8% -0.3%
Personal Income -0.1% +1.0% +0.3% +0.5% +0.2
Personal Spending -0.5% +0.6% +0.7% +0.1%
ISM Mfg Index 54.2 56.6 54.3 58.8 57.5 59.5
ISM Nonmfg NMI 59.7 56.7 58.0 60.4 60.0 60.8
MNI Chicago Report 64.7 56.7 63.8 63.5 59.4 61.5
Phila Fed Mfg Index -4.1 17.0 9.1 11.9 19.7 21.4
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index 10.0 1.0 7.7 35.5 34.7 35.8
Empire State Index 3.9 11.5 21.4 20.0 18.8
KC Fed Mfg Index 1 5 6 17 10 13
Richmond Fed Mfg Index -2 -8 14 15 29
Dallas Fed Mfg Index 13.1 1.0 -5.1 17.6 29.4 28.1
Markit Mfg Index 53.0 54.9 53.8 55.4 55.7 55.6
Markit Services Index 56.2 54.2 54.4 54.7 54.8 53.5
Ind Production -0.6% +0.1% +0.6% +0.3% +0.1%
Capacity Util 78.2% 78.8% 78.9% 78.4% 78.4%
Factory Orders +0.1% -0.5% -2.1% +0.2%
Factory Orders ex
transport -0.6% -1.3% +0.2% +0.1%
Durables +0.4% +1.3% +0.9% -4.3% Flat
Durables ex transport -0.1% +0.3% -0.2% +0.4% -0.5%
Nondurables -1.0% -2.0% +0.1% +0.5%
Mfg Shipments +0.8% +1.0% -0.3% +0.7%
Business Inventories +0.6% Flat +0.6% +0.5%
Factory Flat -0.1% +0.2% +0.6%
Retail +0.9% -0.4% +0.8% +0.1%
Wholesale +1.1% +0.4% +0.9% +0.7%
Housing Starts (mn) 1.230 1.037 1.206 1.209 1.237
Building Permits (mn) 1.345 1.326 1.322 1.265 1.270
NAHB Index 58 56 60 60 68
New Home Sales (k) 621 599 549 597
Existing Homes (mn) 4.94 5.00 5.21 5.22 5.18
Pending Home Sales Index 99.0 101.2 102.1 104.8
Construct Spending +1.3% -0.8% -1.3% +0.2% -1.8%
Private Residential -0.3% -1.9% -0.6% -0.7% -2.0%
Trade Balance (bn) -$59.8 -$50.3 -$56.3 -$55.4
Exports (bn) +$205.1 +$209.1 +$210.4 +$210.6
Imports (bn) +$264.8 +$259.4 +$266.7 +$266.0
Goods Only, BOP (bn) -$81.5 -$72.6 -$78.9 -$78.0
Leading Index -0.1% +0.2% -0.3% +0.5%
Q4-18 Q3-18
GDP (chain-wt) +2.6% +3.4%
Final Sales +2.5% +1.0%
Chain prices +1.8% +1.8%
Current-dollar +4.6% +4.9%
Q4-18 Q3-18
Nonfarm Productivity +1.9% +1.8%
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs +2.0% +1.6%
Q4-18 Q3-18
ECI (q/q) +0.7% +0.8%
(a) advance report
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAUDT$,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.