US: Recap of Economic Indicators

                             Mar-19   Feb-19   Jan-19   Dec-18   Nov-18   Oct-18

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UI Claims/4wk avg

wk 1                        224/220  230/225  221/224  213/225  223/219  212/213

wk 2                        216/220  231/229  217/223  220/224  224/221  215/214

wk 3                        211/217  213/229  211/220  223/221  234/224  218/216

wk 4                                 224/225  244/223  231/222  229/227  219/216

wk 5                                 218/221                             217/217

Nonfarm Payrolls                        +20k    +311k    +227k    +196k    +277k

Private Payrolls                        +25k    +308k    +224k    +200k    +285k

Mfg Payroll                              +4k     +21k     +20k     +27k     +29k

Unemployment                            3.8%     4.0%     3.9%     3.7%     3.8%

Avg Wkly Hours                          34.4     34.5     34.5     34.4     34.5

Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.7     40.8     40.9     40.8     40.8

Aggr Hours Index                       -0.3%    +0.3%    +0.5%    -0.2%    +0.3%

Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                   -0.2%     Flat    +0.3%    +0.2%     Flat

Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.3%    +0.2%

Final Demand PPI                       +0.1%    -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.5%

excl food & energy                     +0.1%    +0.3%     Flat    +0.3%    +0.3%

excl food, energy, trade               +0.1%    +0.2%     Flat    +0.3%    +0.1%

CPI                                    +0.2%     Flat     Flat     Flat    +0.3%

excl food & energy                     +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%

Import Prices                           +0.6    +0.1%    -1.4%    -1.6%    +0.5%

non-petro import prices                +0.1%    -0.6%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.2%

ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                          49.6     54.9     60.7     71.6

PCE Price Index M/M                             -0.1%    +0.1%     Flat    +0.2%

PCE Price Index Y/Y                             +1.4%    +1.7%    +1.8%    +2.0%

Core PCE Price Index M/M                        +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%

Core PCE Price Index Y/Y                        +1.8%    +1.7%    +1.8%    +2.0%

Treasury Budget (bn)                            +$8.7   -$13.5  -$204.9  -$100.5

Consumer Credit (bn)                           +$17.0   +$15.4   +$22.1   +$25.4

CB Consumer Confidence                 131.4    121.7    126.6    136.4    137.9

Consumer Sentiment                      93.8     91.2     98.3     97.5     98.6

Car Sales Ex GM,Ford, saar

(mn)                                              2.5      2.6      2.5      2.7

Truck Sales Ex GM,Ford,

Saar (mn)                                         4.6      5.0      4.9      4.9

Total Ex GM,Ford, saar

(mn)                                              7.1      7.5      7.4      7.6

Retail Sales                                    +0.2%    -1.6%     Flat    +1.0%

excl motor vehicles                             +0.9%    -2.1%    -0.1%    +0.8%

Personal Income                        +0.2%    -0.1%    +1.0%    +0.3%    +0.5%

Personal Spending                               +0.1%    -0.6%    +0.5%    +0.6%

ISM Mfg Index                           54.2     56.6     54.3     58.8     57.5

ISM Nonmfg NMI                          59.7     56.7     58.0     60.4     60.0

MNI Chicago Report                      64.7     56.7     63.8     63.5     59.4

Phila Fed Mfg Index            13.7     -4.1     17.0      9.1     11.9     19.7

Phila Fed Nonmfg Index         21.7     10.0      1.0      7.7     35.5     34.7

Empire State Index              3.7      8.8      3.9     11.5     21.4     20.0

KC Fed Mfg Index                 10        1        5        6       17       10

Richmond Fed Mfg Index           10       16       -2       -8       14       15

Dallas Fed Mfg Index            8.3     13.1      1.0     -5.1     17.6     29.4

Markit Mfg Index               52.5     53.0     54.9     53.8     55.4     55.7

Markit Services Index          54.8     56.0     54.2     54.4     54.7     54.8

Ind Production                          Flat    -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.7%    +0.1%

Capacity Util                          79.1%    79.2%    79.4%    79.6%    79.2%

Factory Orders                                  +0.1%    +0.1%    -0.5%    -2.1%

Factory Orders ex

transport                                       -0.2%    -0.5%    -1.3%    +0.2%

Durables                                        +0.3%    +1.3%    +0.9%    -4.3%

Durables ex transport                           -0.2%    +0.3%    -0.2%    +0.4%

Nondurables                                     -0.2%    -1.1%    -2.0%    +0.1%

Mfg Shipments                                   -0.2%    -0.2%    +1.0%    -0.3%

Business Inventories                                     +0.6%     Flat    +0.6%

Factory                                                   Flat    -0.1%    +0.2%

Retail                                                   +0.9%    -0.4%    +0.8%

Wholesale                                       +1.2%    +1.1%    +0.4%    +0.9%

Housing Starts (mn)                    1.162    1.273    1.140    1.206    1.209

Building Permits (mn)                  1.291    1.317    1.326    1.322    1.265

NAHB Index                       62       62       58       56       60       60

New Home Sales (k)                       667      636      588      628      549

Existing Homes (mn)                     5.51     4.93     5.00     5.21     5.22

Pending Home Sales Index               101.9    103.2     99.0    101.2    102.1

Construct Spending                              +1.3%    -0.8%    -1.3%    +0.2%

Private Residential                             -0.3%    -1.9%    -0.6%    -0.7%

Trade Balance (bn)                             -$51.1   -$59.9   -$50.5   -$56.5

Exports (bn)                                  +$207.3  +$205.4  +$209.3  +$210.7

Imports (bn)                                  +$258.5  +$265.4  +$259.9  +$267.2

Goods Only, BOP (bn)                           -$73.3   -$81.5   -$72.6   -$78.9

Leading Index                                            -0.1%    +0.2%    -0.3%

                                                         Q4-18

GDP (chain-wt)                                           +2.2%

Final Sales                                              +2.1%

Chain prices                                             +1.7%

Current-dollar                                           +4.1%

                                                         Q4-18

Nonfarm Productivity                                     +1.9%

Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                 +2.0%

                                                         Q4-18

ECI (q/q)                                                +0.7%

(a) advance report

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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