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Needle Points South

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BLOCK, Huge 5Y Put Buy

EURJPY TECHS

Probes The Bear Trigger

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Range Base Holds Firm

US: Recap of Economic Indicators

                             Mar-18   Feb-18   Jan-18   Dec-17   Nov-17   Oct-17
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1                        230/222  223/225  261/251  236/242  239/231  244/258
wk 2                        226/222  229/228  216/244  225/235  252/239  223/249
wk 3                                 220/226  231/240  245/236  240/240  234/240
wk 4                                 210/221  230/235  247/238  238/242  229/233
wk 5                                                   250/242
Nonfarm Payrolls                       +313k    +239k    +175k    +216k    +271k
Private Payrolls                       +287k    +238k    +174k    +217k    +277k
Mfg Payroll                             +31k     +25k     +39k     +30k     +20k
Unemployment                            4.1%     4.1%     4.1%     4.1%     4.1%
Avg Wkly Hours                          34.5     34.4     34.5     34.5     34.4
Avg Hours - Mfg                         41.0     40.8     40.8     40.9     40.9
Aggr Hours Index                       +0.6%    -0.1%    +0.2%    +0.5%    +0.5%
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                   +0.6%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.4%
Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.3%    -0.2%
Final Demand PPI                       +0.2%    +0.4%     Flat    +0.4%    +0.5%
excl food & energy                     +0.2%    +0.4%    -0.1%    +0.2%    +0.5%
excl food, energy, trade               +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.3%
CPI                                    +0.2%    +0.5%    +0.2%    +0.3%    +0.1%
excl food & energy                     +0.2%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.2%
Import Prices                          +0.4%    +0.8%    +0.2%    +1.0%    +0.2%
non-petro import prices                +0.5%    +0.5%    -0.1%    +0.2%     Flat
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                 74.2     72.7     69.0     65.5     68.5
PCE Price Index M/M                             +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%
PCE Price Index Y/Y                             +1.7%    +1.7%    +1.7%    +1.6%
Core PCE Price Index M/M                        +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.2%
Core PCE Price Index Y/Y                        +1.5%    +1.5%    +1.5%    +1.5%
Treasury Budget (bn)                 -$215.2   +$49.2   -$23.2  -$138.5   -$63.2
Consumer Credit (bn)                           +$13.9   +$19.2   +$30.9   +$22.8
CB Consumer Confidence                 130.8    124.3    123.1    128.6    126.2
Consumer Sentiment            102.0     99.7     95.7     95.9     98.5    100.7
Car Sales, saar (mn)                     3.9      3.8      4.1      4.3      4.4
Truck Sales, saar (mn)                   8.9      9.0      9.5      9.0      9.4
Total, saar (mn)                        12.8     12.8     13.6     13.3     13.8
Retail Sales                           -0.1%    -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.8%    +0.7%
excl motor vehicles                    +0.2%    +0.1%     Flat    +1.2%    +0.5%
Personal Income                                 +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.3%    +0.4%
Personal Spending                               +0.2%    +0.4%    +0.7%    +0.3%
ISM Mfg Index                           60.8     59.1     59.3     58.2     58.5
ISM Nonmfg NMI                          59.5     59.9     56.0     57.3     59.8
MNI Chicago Report                      61.9     65.7     67.8     65.6     65.4
Phila Fed Mfg Index            22.3     25.8     22.2     27.9     24.3     28.8
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index         30.1     31.0     19.5     29.4     25.6     33.4
Empire State Index             22.5     13.1     17.7     19.6     20.9     28.1
KC Fed Mfg Index                          17       16       13       15       22
Richmond Fed Mfg Index                    28       14       20       30       12
Dallas Fed Mfg Index                    37.2     33.4     29.7     19.4     27.6
Markit Mfg Index                        55.3     55.5     55.1     53.9     54.6
Markit Services Index                   55.9     53.3     53.7     54.5     55.3
Ind Production                         +1.1%    -0.3%    +0.5%    +0.3%    +1.7%
Capacity Util                          78.1%    77.7%    77.8%    77.5%    77.3%
Factory Orders                                  -1.4%    +1.8%    +1.7%    +0.4%
Factory Orders ex
transport                                       +0.4%    +0.9%    +1.1%    +1.2%
Durables                                        -3.6%    +2.7%    +1.7%    -0.4%
Durables ex transport                           -0.3%    +0.8%    +0.4%    +1.4%
Nondurables                                     +0.8%    +0.9%    +1.6%    +1.1%
Mfg Shipments                                   +0.6%    +0.7%    +1.4%    +0.8%
Business Inventories                            +0.6%    +0.6%    +0.4%     Flat
Factory                                         +0.3%    +0.7%    +0.5%    +0.3%
Retail                                          +0.7%    +0.3%    +0.2%     Flat
Wholesale                                       +0.8%    +0.7%    +0.6%    -0.4%
Housing Starts (mn)                    1.236    1.329    1.207    1.299    1.261
Building Permits (mn)                  1.298    1.377    1.300    1.303    1.316
NAHB Index                       70       71       72       74       69       68
New Home Sales (k)                                593      643      696      616
Existing Homes (mn)                              5.38     5.56     5.72     5.50
Pending Home Sales Index                        104.6    109.8    109.8    109.4
Construct Spending                               Flat    +0.8%    +1.2%    +0.1%
Private Residential                             +0.3%    -0.5%    +1.2%    -1.0%
Trade Balance (bn)                             -$56.6   -$53.9   -$50.9   -$49.1
Exports (bn)                                   $200.9   $203.6   $200.2   $195.7
Imports (bn)                                   $257.5   $257.5   $251.1   $244.8
Goods Only, BOP (bn)                           -$76.5   -$73.7   -$71.1   -$69.5
Leading Index                                   +1.0%    +0.6%    +0.4%    +1.3%
                                                         Q4-17
GDP (chain-wt)                                           +2.5%
Final Sales                                              +3.3%
Chain prices                                             +2.3%
Current-dollar                                           +4.9%
                                                         Q4-17
Nonfarm Productivity                                      Flat
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                 +2.5%
                                                         Q4-17
ECI (q/q)                                                +0.6%
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 212-800-8517; email: sara.haire@marketnews.com
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