US Response To Iranian JCPOA Comments Expected Today

Observers of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear negotiations expect a US response to the Iranian comments on the EU proposal today, or tomorrow. If the US doesn't reject the Iranian comments, a Joint Commission to finalise agreement on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Nuclear accords may be called by the EU as soon as next week.

• The Russia delegation said on Wednesday: "I hope that Washington will react positively and if that happens, we will have most likely a ministerial meeting of the Joint Commission of the JCPOA either this week or next week."
• The Joint Commission, chaired by EU High Representative Josep Borrell, is responsible for overseeing the implementation of the JCPOA and comprised of representatives of Iran and the E3/EU+3 (China, France, Germany, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
• The Wall Street Journal’s Laurence Norman said this morning it's, “a reasonable assumption, if unconfirmed, that the US will respond to Iranian concerns/issues today via EU. That’s the expectation.”
• The US will have to balance the accommodation of Iranian demands without changing the fundamentals of the EU proposal. Such a scenario would run the risk of further prolonging talks and expanding the window for Iran to develop more advanced nuclear capabilities.
• Norman also suggests the calling of a Joint Commission would be unlikely unless a concrete agreement had been reached but it cannot be discounted as a negotiating tactic: “Unless EU steps in and raises stakes by calling a [Joint Commission] soon and daring Iran not to finalise deal. Would the EU dare call a Joint Commission meeting with issues still open? Dunno. But I wouldn’t exclude it completely.”
• Laura Rozen of Just Security tweeted yesterday: “..one European official suggested [the US response could come] any moment now, but could be tomorrow (Friday).”
• State Department Spokesperson Ned Price said yesterday the US is continuing to review Iran’s comments and, “continue to convey our feedback directly and privately to the EU, as has been requested.”
• This morning, South Korean Vice Foreign Minister Cho Hyun-dong held phone calls with the US special envoy for Iran Robert Malley and EU mediator Enrique Mora. This could be an important precursor to a final deal as the release of USD$7 billion of Iranian assets frozen in Seoul is one of Iran’s key demands.
• Expectations should be managed. A final deal requires ratification from the United States Congress. The Republican Party will almost certainly move to block a deal and a number of high-profile Democrats, including Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Sen Robert Menendez (D-NJ) have vocally opposed a mutual return to compliance.