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MNI US MARKETS ANALYSIS - NFP Followed by Ample Fedspeak
US TSY OPTION IMPLIED VOL/OTC SWAPTION VOL FOR JAN 3
EST IMPLIED VOLATILITY/AVG ATM OPTIONS VIA BLOOMBERG, (All Times ET)
USG USH TYG TYH FVG FVH EDF EDH
1000 7.88% 7.85% 3.93% 4.08% 2.43% 2.52% 19.20% 12.15%
FRI OPEN 8.08% 7.95% 4.04% 4.11% 2.52% 2.53% 17.35% 11.95%
THU 1500 7.59% 7.59% 3.84% 3.95% 2.34% 2.39% 14.60% 11.40%
THU OPEN 7.57% 7.60% 3.88% 3.98% 2.40% 2.42% 13.00% 11.05%
TUE 1300 7.51% 7.56% 3.87% 3.98% 2.35% 2.42% 13.05% 11.85%
TUE OPEN 7.62% 7.51% 3.97% 4.02% 2.38% 2.45% 13.90% 11.35%
MON 1500 7.62% 7.55% 4.01% 4.05% 2.44% 2.45% 13.40% 11.50%
MON OPEN N/A 7.25% N/A 3.91% N/A 2.37% 13.20% 11.90%
FRI 1500 N/A 7.25% N/A 3.91% N/A 2.37% 13.20% 11.90%
FRI OPEN N/A 7.23% N/A 3.94% N/A 2.43% 12.25% 11.75%
LARGEST O/I: STRIKE TOTAL CHANGE STRIKE TOTAL CHANGE
FEB20 10Y NOTE 129.50 C 198,299 +823 127.00 P 125,350 +2,702
MAR20 10Y NOTE 131.00 C 77,280 -438 117.50 P 66,948 UNCH
FEB20 5Y NOTE 119.25 C 53,047 -526 118.00 P 33,510 -178
MAR20 5Y NOTE 119.00 C 32,200 +56 111.00 P 252,174 UNCH
FEB20 2Y NOTE 107.75 C 5,867 -223 107.12 P 24,223 UNCH
MAR20 2Y NOTE 108.00 C 13,072 UNCH 105.75 P 55,165 UNCH
JAN20 EURODLR 98.50 C 126,858 UNCH 98.12 P 105,555 UNCH
MAR20 EURODLR 99.00 C 467,063 UNCH 98.25 P 536,505 -30
MAR21 1Y-MIDC 99.75 C 247,313 UNCH 98.25 P 88,487 +7,800
MAR22 2Y-MIDC 98.25 C 79,246 UNCH 97.37 P 96,133 UNCH
MAR23 3Y-MIDC 98.12 C 53,469 UNCH 97.62 P 29,500 UNCH
NEAREST ATM: STRIKE TOTAL CHANGE STRIKE TOTAL CHANGE
FEB20 10Y NOTE 129.00 C 123,367 -2,301 129.00 P 25,510 +207
FEB20 10Y NOTE 129.50 C 198,299 +823 129.50 P 16,109 -310
MAR20 10Y NOTE 129.00 C 25,230 +1,665 129.00 P 26,014 -347
MAR20 10Y NOTE 129.50 C 23,571 -594 129.50 P 11,506 -3
FEB20 5Y NOTE 118.50 C 46,022 -66 118.50 P 19,766 +1,191
FEB20 5Y NOTE 118.75 C 23,336 +178 118.75 P 12,676 -250
MAR20 5Y NOTE 118.50 C 15,213 -102 118.50 P 18,822 +1,572
MAR20 5Y NOTE 118.75 C 13,878 +830 118.75 P 11,307 +301
FEB20 2Y NOTE 107.75 C 5,867 -223 107.75 P 10,441 -1,857
FEB20 2Y NOTE 107.87 C 2,535 UNCH 107.87 P 1,878 UNCH
MAR20 2Y NOTE 107.75 C 1,055 UNCH 107.75 P 2,726 UNCH
MAR20 2Y NOTE 107.87 C 3,032 UNCH 107.87 P 4,507 UNCH
JAN20 EURODLR 98.25 C 75,313 UNCH 98.25 P 82,276 -61
JAN20 EURODLR 98.37 C 87,026 UNCH 98.37 P 25,287 UNCH
MAR20 EURODLR 98.25 C 351,135 -25,999 98.25 P 536,505 -30
MAR20 EURODLR 98.37 C 459,101 +6,100 98.37 P 265,988 -4,800
MAR21 1Y-MIDC 98.37 C 73,321 UNCH 98.37 P 70,095 -3,255
MAR21 1Y-MIDC 98.50 C 62,966 -1,879 98.50 P 48,260 -2,640
MAR22 2Y-MIDC 98.37 C 31,398 UNCH 98.37 P 29,952 +215
MAR22 2Y-MIDC 98.50 C 38,404 +3,238 98.50 P 30,540 UNCH
MAR23 3Y-MIDC 98.37 C 9,745 UNCH 98.37 P 15,276 UNCH
MAR23 3Y-MIDC 98.50 C 44,729 UNCH 98.50 P 7,719 UNCH
PUT/CALL RATIO FOR VOLUME CLEARED:
FEB20 10Y NOTE PUT/CALL RATIO -- 1.13 (104,271 PUTS VS. 92,994 CALLS)
MAR20 10Y NOTE PUT/CALL RATIO -- 1.15 (45,325 PUTS VS. 39,328 CALLS)
FEB20 5Y NOTE PUT/CALL RATIO -- 0.61 (28,782 PUTS VS. 46,014 CALLS)
MAR20 5Y NOTE PUT/CALL RATIO -- 1.12 (15,891 PUTS VS. 12,796 CALLS)
FEB20 2Y NOTE PUT/CALL RATIO -- 10.1 (2,265 PUTS VS. 223 CALLS)
MAR20 2Y NOTE PUT/CALL RATIO -- 1.69 (71 PUTS VS. 42 CALLS)
JAN20 EURODLRS PUT/CALL RATIO -- 0.50 (61 PUTS VS. 122 CALLS)
MAR20 EURODLRS PUT/CALL RATIO -- 0.35 (46,383 PUTS VS. 131,750 CALLS)
MAR21 1Y-MIDCRVE PUT/CALL RATIO -- 0.90 (28,894 PUTS VS. 31,929 CALLS)
MAR22 2Y-MIDCRVE PUT/CALL RATIO -- 1.87 (58,281 PUTS VS. 31,074 CALLS)
MAR23 3Y-MIDCRVE PUT/CALL RATIO -- 5.00 (325 PUTS VS. 65 CALLS)
(VOLUME, OPEN INTEREST, RATIOS ALL REFLECT PRIOR SESSION'S DATA)
Swaption BP/Vol Via Bloomberg:
Time (ET) 3M/2Y 1M/10Y 3M/5Y 3M/10Y 2Y/10Y 5Y/5Y
1000 47.75 66.29 63.85 66.27 63.72 64.28
Fri Open 47.70 66.41 63.95 66.40 63.80 64.23
Thu 1500 48.70 64.37 62.65 64.95 63.38 64.14
Thu Open 48.45 65.10 62.40 64.60 63.45 64.05
Tue 1300 48.65 66.28 62.60 64.91 63.91 64.21
Tue Open 48.77 66.40 62.41 64.68 63.75 64.26
Mon 1500 47.53 66.33 62.29 64.65 63.75 64.31
Mon Open 48.53 63.11 61.81 63.97 63.64 64.27
Fri 1500 48.55 61.60 61.62 64.01 63.65 64.27
Fri Open 47.76 62.54 61.91 64.45 64.30 64.25
--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.