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US TSYS: Bonds Lead Bounce in Second Half Trade, Pre-NFP Squaring

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasury futures are quietly paring losses in the second half, curves mildly flatter (2s10s -.930 at 10.442; 5s30s -2.575 at 31.429) with bonds leading the move to session highs. In the absence of headline drivers, the current drift off lows mirrors late moves in Gilts.
  • The Dec'24 10Y futures contract trades -3 at 110-19.5 vs. 110-20 high, initial technical resistance above at 111-06.5 (Oct 25 high) to 111-29 (20-day EMA).
  • Trading desks note modest short covering from proprietary/trading accts looking to square up positions ahead of tomorrow's October employment report at 0830ET, current survey estimate at +105k jobs vs. +254k in September.
  • The FOMC announces their next rate decision on Thursday, November 7 (dots not included. Current projected rate cuts into early 2025 are largely steady vs. late Wednesday levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative at -23.5bp ( -23.5bp), Dec'24 -42.8bp (-42.8bp), Jan'25 -58.1bp (-58.1bp), Mar'25 -75.0bp (-76.0bp).
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  • Treasury futures are quietly paring losses in the second half, curves mildly flatter (2s10s -.930 at 10.442; 5s30s -2.575 at 31.429) with bonds leading the move to session highs. In the absence of headline drivers, the current drift off lows mirrors late moves in Gilts.
  • The Dec'24 10Y futures contract trades -3 at 110-19.5 vs. 110-20 high, initial technical resistance above at 111-06.5 (Oct 25 high) to 111-29 (20-day EMA).
  • Trading desks note modest short covering from proprietary/trading accts looking to square up positions ahead of tomorrow's October employment report at 0830ET, current survey estimate at +105k jobs vs. +254k in September.
  • The FOMC announces their next rate decision on Thursday, November 7 (dots not included. Current projected rate cuts into early 2025 are largely steady vs. late Wednesday levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative at -23.5bp ( -23.5bp), Dec'24 -42.8bp (-42.8bp), Jan'25 -58.1bp (-58.1bp), Mar'25 -75.0bp (-76.0bp).