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US TSYS: Buoyed By European Growth Concerns

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries have been buoyed by European growth concerns after misses for flash PMIs in both the Eurozone and UK.
  • It dials up focus on today’s US flash PMIs (see the earlier STIR post) and the final U.Mich consumer survey. The latter should receive greater than usual attention considering it will be the first look at sentiment and inflation expectations since the US election (survey ended Nov 18 vs Nov 4 for the preliminary release).
  • Cash yields are 2-3.5bp lower on the day, with the belly leading declines and the very long-end lagging.
  • Benchmark yields remain within yesterday’s range across the curve, consolidating prior flattening with 2s10s at 7.3bps.
  • TYZ4 is close to session highs of 109-25 (+ 08) on relatively modest cumulative volumes of 430k considering continued roll activity.
  • It remains below yesterday’s high of 109-28+ and resistance at 110-06 (20-day EMA). The bear cycle is seen still in play, with support at 108-30 (Nov 15 low) after which lies 108-18+ (1.236 proj of Oct 1 - 10 - 16 swing).
  • Data: S&P Global US PMIs Nov prelim (0945ET), U.Mich consumer survey Nov final (1000ET), KC Fed services Nov (1100ET)
  • Fedspeak: Bowman speaks on AI (1815ET)
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  • Treasuries have been buoyed by European growth concerns after misses for flash PMIs in both the Eurozone and UK.
  • It dials up focus on today’s US flash PMIs (see the earlier STIR post) and the final U.Mich consumer survey. The latter should receive greater than usual attention considering it will be the first look at sentiment and inflation expectations since the US election (survey ended Nov 18 vs Nov 4 for the preliminary release).
  • Cash yields are 2-3.5bp lower on the day, with the belly leading declines and the very long-end lagging.
  • Benchmark yields remain within yesterday’s range across the curve, consolidating prior flattening with 2s10s at 7.3bps.
  • TYZ4 is close to session highs of 109-25 (+ 08) on relatively modest cumulative volumes of 430k considering continued roll activity.
  • It remains below yesterday’s high of 109-28+ and resistance at 110-06 (20-day EMA). The bear cycle is seen still in play, with support at 108-30 (Nov 15 low) after which lies 108-18+ (1.236 proj of Oct 1 - 10 - 16 swing).
  • Data: S&P Global US PMIs Nov prelim (0945ET), U.Mich consumer survey Nov final (1000ET), KC Fed services Nov (1100ET)
  • Fedspeak: Bowman speaks on AI (1815ET)