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US TSYS: Curves Twist Steeper As Geopol Risk Eases, Focus on ADP, Chair Powell

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries look to finish mostly lower Tuesday, at/near late session lows, curves steeper with the short end bucking the move - well bid on the back of additional dovish Fed speak.
  • Currently, Mar'25 2Y futures are +1.5 at 103-01.62, 10s -5.5 at 110-30 -- well off this morning's gap bid in response to South Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol surprise emergency martial law declaration, "accusing the country’s opposition of controlling the parliament, sympathizing with North Korea and paralyzing the government with anti-state activities" (APW).
  • Dec'24 10Y futures tap 111-11 high (+8), through initial resistance at 111-09 (yesterday's high) focus on 111-13 (50-day EMA) followed by 111-26 (High Oct 22).
  • Curves finishing steeper near highs as intermediate to long end underperforms, 2s10s +10.960 at 1.558 vs. 3.330 high, after the SK President rescinded the martial law order.
  • Treasury futures pare support after broadly higher than expected JOLTS job gains data: Job openings were higher than expected in October at 7.744m (cons 7.52m) after a modestly downward revised 7.37m (initial 7.44m) in September, leaving them back closer to the 7.86m in August. Quits rate: 2.09% after 1.95 (initial 1.93) in July. 2019 av 2.33, 2017-18 av 2.20.
  • While markets keep an eye on South Korea overnight, US focus turns to ADP private employment and ISM data Wednesday while Fed Chairman Powell will speak at a moderated policy discussion at 1340ET.
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  • Treasuries look to finish mostly lower Tuesday, at/near late session lows, curves steeper with the short end bucking the move - well bid on the back of additional dovish Fed speak.
  • Currently, Mar'25 2Y futures are +1.5 at 103-01.62, 10s -5.5 at 110-30 -- well off this morning's gap bid in response to South Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol surprise emergency martial law declaration, "accusing the country’s opposition of controlling the parliament, sympathizing with North Korea and paralyzing the government with anti-state activities" (APW).
  • Dec'24 10Y futures tap 111-11 high (+8), through initial resistance at 111-09 (yesterday's high) focus on 111-13 (50-day EMA) followed by 111-26 (High Oct 22).
  • Curves finishing steeper near highs as intermediate to long end underperforms, 2s10s +10.960 at 1.558 vs. 3.330 high, after the SK President rescinded the martial law order.
  • Treasury futures pare support after broadly higher than expected JOLTS job gains data: Job openings were higher than expected in October at 7.744m (cons 7.52m) after a modestly downward revised 7.37m (initial 7.44m) in September, leaving them back closer to the 7.86m in August. Quits rate: 2.09% after 1.95 (initial 1.93) in July. 2019 av 2.33, 2017-18 av 2.20.
  • While markets keep an eye on South Korea overnight, US focus turns to ADP private employment and ISM data Wednesday while Fed Chairman Powell will speak at a moderated policy discussion at 1340ET.