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US TSYS: Curves Twist to New 2+ Year Highs, Consumer Confidence Dips

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries looked to finish mixed Tuesday, curves twisting steeper with the short end outperforming. Rates bounced off modestly weaker levels after this mornings lower than expected Conference Board consumer survey.
  • Data was markedly weaker than expected in September. Consumer confidence fell to 98.7 (cons 104.0) for a sizeable slip after an upward revised 105.6 (initial 103.3) in Aug. Declines were seen in both the present situation and expectations components.
  • Dec'24 10Y Tsy futures are currently +3.5 at 114-28 vs. 114-09.5 low -- still well off initial technical resistance at 115-02+/23+ High Sep 19 / 11 and the bull trigger.
  • Curves steepened with the short end outperforming, new 2+ highs in the 2s10s curve climbing to 20.213, 5s30s taps 62.011 high.
  • Projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain traction, latest vs. this morning's levels (*) as follows: Nov'24 cumulative -39.8bp (-38.5bp), Dec'24 -78.6bp (-74.4bp), Jan'25 -113.0bp (-108.0bp).
  • Cross asset summary: Stocks held modest gains after the bell, near all-time highs, Eminis 5793.50, the Dow 42,232.0; Gold marked new high of 2,660.50.
  • Looking ahead to Wednesday's session: MBA Mortgage apps, New Home Sales, $28B 2Y FRN, $62B 17W bill auctions, $70B 5Y at 1300ET.
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  • Treasuries looked to finish mixed Tuesday, curves twisting steeper with the short end outperforming. Rates bounced off modestly weaker levels after this mornings lower than expected Conference Board consumer survey.
  • Data was markedly weaker than expected in September. Consumer confidence fell to 98.7 (cons 104.0) for a sizeable slip after an upward revised 105.6 (initial 103.3) in Aug. Declines were seen in both the present situation and expectations components.
  • Dec'24 10Y Tsy futures are currently +3.5 at 114-28 vs. 114-09.5 low -- still well off initial technical resistance at 115-02+/23+ High Sep 19 / 11 and the bull trigger.
  • Curves steepened with the short end outperforming, new 2+ highs in the 2s10s curve climbing to 20.213, 5s30s taps 62.011 high.
  • Projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain traction, latest vs. this morning's levels (*) as follows: Nov'24 cumulative -39.8bp (-38.5bp), Dec'24 -78.6bp (-74.4bp), Jan'25 -113.0bp (-108.0bp).
  • Cross asset summary: Stocks held modest gains after the bell, near all-time highs, Eminis 5793.50, the Dow 42,232.0; Gold marked new high of 2,660.50.
  • Looking ahead to Wednesday's session: MBA Mortgage apps, New Home Sales, $28B 2Y FRN, $62B 17W bill auctions, $70B 5Y at 1300ET.