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EUROZONE

Timeline of key events (Times GMT)

EURJPY TECHS

Resumes Its Downtrend

GBPUSD TECHS

Bears Pause For Breath

EURUSD TECHS

Trend Needle Still Points South

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS

(Z1) Bearish Risk Remains Present

     
US TSY SUMMARY: Early dog-days of summer trade Wednesday, rates marginally mixed
with the long end back to near midrange after long end extended session highs in
late trade.
- Rate support evaporated into the open, albeit on modest volumes as equities
inched higher. US$ offered, Gold at 9 year highs -- through psychological
$1800.0 level.
- NY Fed Exec VP Singh comments on asset purchases (adaptive: slowing if mkts
improve, or accelerating if needed) roiled markets around midmorning. Equities
pared gains after UAL headline that some 36,000 US jobs at risk.
- Really solid US Tsy $29B 10Y note auction re-open (912828ZQ6) awarded 0.653%
rate (0.832% last month) vs. 0.664% WI; 2.62 bid/cover (2.26 previous).
Indirects drew 63.36% vs. 56.74%, directs 16.95% vs. 11.76%, and dealers with
19.69% vs. 31.50% prior. Tsy futures blipped higher, off weaker levels post
auction. 
- The 2-Yr yield is unchanged at 0.1567%, 5-Yr is up 0.5bps at 0.2912%, 10-Yr is
up 1.2bps at 0.6512%, and 30-Yr is up 1.4bps at 1.3885%.
TECHNICALS:
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U0) Holding Onto Recent Gains     
*RES 4: 140-00   Psychological round number
*RES 3: 139-25   Contract high, Mar 25
*RES 2: 139-22+ 0.618 projection of Jun 5 - 11 rally from Jun 16 low
*RES 1: 139-14/16  High Jun 30 / High Apr 21 and key resistance
*PRICE: 139-05 @ 16:20 BST Jul 08
*SUP 1: 138-23+ Low Jul 2 
*SUP 2: 138-07   Low Jun 16 and key near-term support
*SUP 3: 137-22   Low Jun 10
*SUP 4: 136-22   Low Jun 5 and the bear trigger 
10yr futures are firmer and maintain a bullish stance. Price has recently traded
close to key resistance of 139-16, Apr 21 high. This level marks the trigger for
a recovery towards major resistance at 139-25, Mar 25 high. A break of 139-25
would represent an important technical break and confirm a resumption of the
broader uptrend, exposing initially the 140-00 handle. Key support remains
138-07, a break would risk a deeper pullback.
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (U0) Testing Key Support 
*RES 3: 99.780 - High Apr 01 and bull trigger
*RES 3: 99.750 - High May 21 and 22 
*RES 1: 99.730 - Congestion highs between Jun 15 - 22
*PRICE: 99.715 @ 16:24 BST Jul 08
*SUP 1: 99.690 - Low Jun 05 and key support
*SUP 2: 99.665 - 100-dma
*SUP 3: 99.645 - Low Mar 20
The short-end of the Aussie is trading at the lows of last week testing support
at 99.700. A break of this level would signal scope for an extension lower
towards 99.690, Jun 8 low. Clearance of these two levels would also represent a
potentially significant technical break. On the upside, the initial hurdle for
bulls is at the 99.730 congestion, highs between Jun 15 - 22. A break would
signal scope for a climb towards 99.780, Apr 1 high further out.
AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (U0) Bulls Find Support
*RES 3: 99.3600 - High Apr 02
*RES 2: 99.2250 - High Apr 17 
*RES 1: 99.1350 High Jun 29 
*PRICE: 99.0950 @ 16:24 BST, Jul 08
*SUP 1: 99.0200 - Low Jul 2 and 3 
*SUP 2: 98.9725 - 50.0% retracement of the Jun 8 - 29 rally
*SUP 3: 98.9342 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - 29 rally
Aussie 10yr futures recovered off last week's lows of 99.0200 and maintain a
more positive tone for now in line with the overall bullish trend. This keeps
the focus on initial key resistance at 99.1350, Jun 29 high where a break would
open 99.2250, Apr 17 high. On the downside, initial key key support has for now
been defined at 99.0200. A break of this level would expose a deeper decline
towards 98.9725, a Fibonacci retracement. 
JGB TECHS: (U0): Rebounding Well
*RES 3: 153.50 - High Mar 16 
*RES 2: 153.06 - High Mar 31 and key resistance
*RES 1: 152.29 - HIgh Jun 12
*PRICE: 151.98 @ 16:25 BST, Jul 08
*SUP 1: 151.18 - Jun 8 low
*SUP 2: 150.61 - Low Mar 19 and key support
*SUP 3: 150.50 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
JGBs bounced last Thursday, reversing some of the losses seen earlier in the
week. Prices remain above the key 151.18 level, Jun 8 low where a break would
unsettle bulls. The recovery off 151.57 is a positive development and signals
scope for a climb towards 152.29, the Jun 12 high. A rally through the 50-dma at
152.16 would also represent a bullish development. Key supports for now has been
defined at 151.18. 
TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Mildly mixed after the bell, back to near midrange after long
end extended session highs in late trade. Yld curves little steeper. Update: 
* 3M10Y  +2.585, 51.049 (L: 46.429 / H: 52.514)
* 2Y10Y  +1.507, 49.42 (L: 47.676 / H: 50.798)
* 2Y30Y  +1.957, 123.307 (L: 120.757 / H: 124.813)
* 5Y30Y  +1.128, 109.743 (L: 107.72 / H: 110.695); Current futures levels:
* Sep 2-Yr futures up 0.5/32 at 110-12.875 (L: 110-12.25 / H: 110-13.12)
* Sep 5-Yr futures up 0.5/32 at 125-22.75 (L: 125-20.25 / H: 125-23.75)
* Sep 10-Yr futures down 2/32 at 139-4.5 (L: 139-00.5 / H: 139-09)
* Sep 30-Yr futures down 5/32 at 178-27 (L: 178-14 / H: 179-09)
* Sep Ultra futures down 4/32 at 219-5 (L: 218-08 / H: 220-00)
US TSYS/SUPPLY: US Tsy bill/note auctions for week. 
DATE     TIME   AMOUNT   SECURITY    (CUSIP)/ANNC  AWARDED
----------------------------------------------------------
06 Jul  1130ET   $54B    13W Bill     (912796TN9)   0.150%
06 Jul  1130ET   $51B    26W Bill     (9127963T4)   0.165%
07 Jul  1130ET   $35B    42D Bill     (912796XF1)   0.125%
07 Jul  1130ET   $35B   119D Bill     (912796TP4)   0.150%
07 Jul  1300ET   $46B    3Y Note      (912828ZY9)   0.190%
08 Jul  1130ET   $25B   105D Bill     (9127964K2)   0.145%
08 Jul  1130ET   $30B   154D Bill     (9127965C9)   0.155%
08 Jul  1300ET   $29B  10Y Note R/O   (912828ZQ6)   0.653%
09 Jul  1130ET   $40B    4W Bill      (9127963N7) 
09 Jul  1130ET   $40B    8W Bill      (9127963X5)
09 Jul  1300ET   $19B  30Y Bond R/O   (912810SN9)
US EURODLR FUTURES CLOSE: Steady to marginally mixed after the bell, short end
underperforming most of the session after 3M LIBOR inched higher (+0.0045 to
0.2729%, -0.0030/wk). Current White pack levels:
* Sep 20 -0.010 at 99.735
* Dec 20 steady at 99.715
* Mar 21 steady at 99.80
* Jun 21 steady at 99.820
* Red Pack (Sep 21-Jun 22) steady to +0.005
* Green Pack (Sep 22-Jun 23) steady to +0.005
* Blue Pack (Sep 23-Jun 24) steady to +0.005
* Gold Pack (Sep 24-Jun 25) -0.005 to +0.005
US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles
* O/N -0.0001 at 0.0829% (+0.0000/wk)
* 1 Month +0.0057 to 0.1882% (+0.0255/wk)
* 3 Month +0.0045 to 0.2729% (-0.0030/wk)
* 6 Month -0.0068 to 0.3534% (-0.0128/wk)
* 1 Year -0.0041 to 0.4881% (-0.0175/wk)
US SWAPS: Narrow range with wider wings outpacing intermediates.
Time(ET)   2Y Swap/Mid   5Y Swap/Mid    10Y Swap/Mid   30Y Swap/Mid
Wed 1500  +0.50/+6.50    +0.06/+2.75    +0.19/-2.88    +0.31/-49.19
1330      +0.12/+6.12    +0.06/+2.75    +0.06/-3.00    +0.25/-49.25
1100      +0.00/+6.00    +0.19/+2.88    +0.06/-3.00    +0.19/-49.19
0900      +0.06/+6.06    +0.06/+2.75    +0.31/-2.75    +0.00/-49.50
Wed Open  -0.19/+5.81    +0.06/+2.75    +0.25/-2.81    +0.06/-49.44
Wed 0700  -0.12/+5.88    +0.06/+2.75    +0.12/-2.94    +0.00/-49.50
STIR: Federal Reserve Bank of New York EFFR for prior session:
* Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 0.09% volume: $62B
* Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 0.09%, volume: $161B
US TSYS: REPO REFERENCE RATES 
* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 0.10%, $969B
* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 0.08%, $402B
* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 0.08%, $384B
FED: NY Fed operational purchase
* Tsy 20Y-30Y, $1.732B accepted of $3.829B submitted
Balance of week's schedule:
* Wed 07/08 1010-1030ET: Tsy 4.5Y-7Y, appr $6.025B
* Thu 07/09 1010-1030ET: TIPS 7.5Y-30Y, appr $1.225B
OUTLOOK: *** US Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate):
09-Jul 0830 04-Jul jobless claims (1.427M, 1.375M)
09-Jul 0830 04-Jul continuing claims (19.290M, 18.750M)
09-Jul 1000 May wholesale inventories (-1.2%, -1.2%)
09-Jul 1000 May wholesale sales (-16.9%, 4.5%)
09-Jul 1030 03-Jul natural gas stocks w/w
09 Jul 1130 US Tsy $40B 4W Bill auction (9127963N7) 
09 Jul 1130 US Tsy $40B 8W Bill auction (9127963X5)
09-Jul 1200 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, Tax Policy Center webinar
09 Jul 1300 US Tsy $19B 30Y Bond R/O auction (912810SN9)
09-Jul 1630 08-Jul Fed weekly securities holdings
PIPELINE: JBIC priced
Date $MM Issuer/Rating/Desc/Maturity/Yld; Priced *; Launch #
07/08 $2.5B *Japan Bank for Int'l Coop (JBIC) 5Y +33
07/08 $450M *ABC International 3Y +140
For Thursday
07/09 $Benchmark Int Finance Corp (IFC) 5Y Global +14
07/09 $Benchmark Tokyo Metro Govt 5Y +54a
Eurodollar/Tsy options
14:30 07/08 EDT US EURODLR OPTIONS: Latest trade,
* 5,000 Oct 96 puts, 1.25
Latest trade, total +38k includes 18k 
* Additional 20,000 Green Dec 95 puts, 4.5 vs. 99.69/0.05%, includes 18k Block
at 1211:15ET* 18,000 Green Dec 95 puts, 4.5 vs. 99.69/0.05%
* Update, over 10,000 Blue Oct 96/97/98 call flys, 2.5 -- ongoing after buying
7,500 w/short Oct 97/98/100 call flys earlier, 5.5 total db
* +7,500 short Oct 97/98/100 call flys w/
* +7,500 Blue Oct 96/97/98 call flys, 5.5 total
* +7,700 short Sep 97 puts, 1.5 last
* 4,300 Green Jul 97 puts and 2,900 Green Jul 96 puts ahead Fri's expiration
* +2,000 Oct/Dec 97 put spds, 1.75
* 1,300 Blue Sep 92/95/96 put flys
Ongoing put fly buyer
* +10,000 short Sep 95/96/97 put spds, 0.5, adds to +20k Tuesday, OI up like
amount. Out the curve, Green Sep 95/96/97 put fly trading as well
Tsy options, Wednesday
* +2,500 TYU/TYQ 139 straddle spds, 37/64
--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]
MNI Chicago Bureau | +1 312-431-0089 | bill.sokolis@marketnews.com
MNI Chicago Bureau | +1 312-431-0089 | bill.sokolis@marketnews.com