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US TSYS: Fed Gov Waller's Late Session Dec Rate Cut Comment Buoys Tsys

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasury curves twisted flatter Monday as bonds led a midmorning rebound off session lows, 2s10s re-inverting (-1.789) but off last week's low of -2.215. Futures bounced again late Monday after Fed Gov Waller still leans toward a rate cut at the December 18 FOMC policy announcement, citing recent "economic data in hand today and forecasts that show that inflation will continue on its downward path to 2 percent over the medium term."
  • Earlier, Atlanta Fed President Bostic remains confident inflation is slowing but is uncertain how restrictive monetary policy needs to be.
  • The ISM manufacturing survey was broadly stronger than expected (ISM mfg: 48.4 (cons 47.5, 56 estimates) after 46.5, its highest since June.) with some encouraging signs from new orders in November. The activity data are sequentially supported by the recent gains in the PMI. Prices paid falling back (Prices paid: 50.3 (cons 55.2, 6 estimates) after 54.8.) limited hawkish reaction to the data although the series has been particularly volatile recently.
  • S&P Global US manufacturing PMI revised higher: 49.7 in final Nov (cons & flash 48.8) after 48.5 in Oct. It pushes the index to its highest since June.
  • Focus remains on Wednesday's ADP private employment and ISM data ahead of Friday's employment report for November.
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  • Treasury curves twisted flatter Monday as bonds led a midmorning rebound off session lows, 2s10s re-inverting (-1.789) but off last week's low of -2.215. Futures bounced again late Monday after Fed Gov Waller still leans toward a rate cut at the December 18 FOMC policy announcement, citing recent "economic data in hand today and forecasts that show that inflation will continue on its downward path to 2 percent over the medium term."
  • Earlier, Atlanta Fed President Bostic remains confident inflation is slowing but is uncertain how restrictive monetary policy needs to be.
  • The ISM manufacturing survey was broadly stronger than expected (ISM mfg: 48.4 (cons 47.5, 56 estimates) after 46.5, its highest since June.) with some encouraging signs from new orders in November. The activity data are sequentially supported by the recent gains in the PMI. Prices paid falling back (Prices paid: 50.3 (cons 55.2, 6 estimates) after 54.8.) limited hawkish reaction to the data although the series has been particularly volatile recently.
  • S&P Global US manufacturing PMI revised higher: 49.7 in final Nov (cons & flash 48.8) after 48.5 in Oct. It pushes the index to its highest since June.
  • Focus remains on Wednesday's ADP private employment and ISM data ahead of Friday's employment report for November.