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US TSYS: Following EGB Lead, Tsys Back to Friday's Levels, Risk-Off Support

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries rebound overnight following EGB's lead on strong risk-off support with Israeli ground assault in southern Lebanon underway. Contributing factors include decline in German, French Mfg PMI data from August levels, and start of port worker strike on US East Coast and Gulf of Mexico rekindle wider supply disruption concerns.
  • Tsy futures fully recover from Monday's post-Chair Powell sell-off to near late Friday levels, Dec'24 10Y futures climbing to 114-22.5 (+13.5), 114-21.5 last; 10Y yield -.0399 at 3.7410. Initial technical resistance at 115-02.5 (Sep 19 high) followed by 115-23.5 (Sep 11 high and bull trigger).
  • Curves retain much of Monday's flattening, however, 2s10s -1.529 at 12.250 after climbing over 19.68 yesterday as projected rate cuts into year end consolidated after Fed Chairman Powell walked back post FOMC pace of rate cuts comments that spurred heavy selling in short end rates Monday. Projected cuts for December less than 75bp at the moment.
  • Focus on this morning's data: S&P Global US Manufacturing flash PMI at 0945ET, followed by Construction Spending, JOLTS job openings, ISMs at 1000ET and Dallas Fed Services at 1030ET. Fed Bostic & Gov Cook moderated discussion at 1110ET, Fed Barkin joining event for moderated discussion late this evening at 1815ET.
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  • Treasuries rebound overnight following EGB's lead on strong risk-off support with Israeli ground assault in southern Lebanon underway. Contributing factors include decline in German, French Mfg PMI data from August levels, and start of port worker strike on US East Coast and Gulf of Mexico rekindle wider supply disruption concerns.
  • Tsy futures fully recover from Monday's post-Chair Powell sell-off to near late Friday levels, Dec'24 10Y futures climbing to 114-22.5 (+13.5), 114-21.5 last; 10Y yield -.0399 at 3.7410. Initial technical resistance at 115-02.5 (Sep 19 high) followed by 115-23.5 (Sep 11 high and bull trigger).
  • Curves retain much of Monday's flattening, however, 2s10s -1.529 at 12.250 after climbing over 19.68 yesterday as projected rate cuts into year end consolidated after Fed Chairman Powell walked back post FOMC pace of rate cuts comments that spurred heavy selling in short end rates Monday. Projected cuts for December less than 75bp at the moment.
  • Focus on this morning's data: S&P Global US Manufacturing flash PMI at 0945ET, followed by Construction Spending, JOLTS job openings, ISMs at 1000ET and Dallas Fed Services at 1030ET. Fed Bostic & Gov Cook moderated discussion at 1110ET, Fed Barkin joining event for moderated discussion late this evening at 1815ET.