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US TSYS: Geopol Risk Haven Play Fades, Fedspeak And Earnings Ahead

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries trade moderately lower today on a variety of factors including a Reuters source suggesting Russia President Putin is open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire deal with President-elect Trump and firmer-than-expected UK CPI inflation (following CAD CPI yesterday).
  • We write more on today’s potentially impactful Fedspeak in the previous STIR bullet but broader risk sentiment can also be impacted by today’s Nvidia earnings after the close.
  • Cash yields are 2-3bp higher on the day, led by 20s and 30s, although yields remain comfortably within the week’s range across the curve.
  • TYZ4 trades within a few ticks of session lows of 109-17 (-10) on modest cumulative volumes of 335k. That includes a boost from the quarterly roll although it remains light at less than 10% complete (today’s spread activity has mostly been concentrated in 5s).  
  • The further pullback from yesterday’s high of 110-04+ helps reaffirm the bearish trend condition, with support seen at 108-30 (Nov 15 low) before 108-18+ (1.236 proj of Oct 1-10-16 swing).
  • Data: MBA mortgage applications, Nov 15 (0700ET)
  • Fedspeak: Barr (1000ET), Cook (1100ET), Bowman (1215ET), Collins (1600ET) – see STIR bullet.
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $16B 20Y Bond auction - 912810UF3 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $64B 17W & $50B 40D CMB auctions (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries trade moderately lower today on a variety of factors including a Reuters source suggesting Russia President Putin is open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire deal with President-elect Trump and firmer-than-expected UK CPI inflation (following CAD CPI yesterday).
  • We write more on today’s potentially impactful Fedspeak in the previous STIR bullet but broader risk sentiment can also be impacted by today’s Nvidia earnings after the close.
  • Cash yields are 2-3bp higher on the day, led by 20s and 30s, although yields remain comfortably within the week’s range across the curve.
  • TYZ4 trades within a few ticks of session lows of 109-17 (-10) on modest cumulative volumes of 335k. That includes a boost from the quarterly roll although it remains light at less than 10% complete (today’s spread activity has mostly been concentrated in 5s).  
  • The further pullback from yesterday’s high of 110-04+ helps reaffirm the bearish trend condition, with support seen at 108-30 (Nov 15 low) before 108-18+ (1.236 proj of Oct 1-10-16 swing).
  • Data: MBA mortgage applications, Nov 15 (0700ET)
  • Fedspeak: Barr (1000ET), Cook (1100ET), Bowman (1215ET), Collins (1600ET) – see STIR bullet.
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $16B 20Y Bond auction - 912810UF3 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $64B 17W & $50B 40D CMB auctions (1130ET)