TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'

MNI BRIEF: Canada NDP Will Bring Nonconfidence Motion In Jan.

CANADA NDP SAYS WILL INTRODUCE NONCONFIDENCE MOTION

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 20

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY103.5 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1901 Fri; -2.13% Y/Y

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Greece to Sell Bills Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BOE APF Sales Due 6 January

MNI: BELGIUM DEC BNB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE -13.8

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US TSYS: Geopol Tensions Continue to Buffet Rates, 20Y Bond Sale Tailed Again

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries held moderately weaker after the bell, off session lows as geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine continued to buffet markets. After the bell, TYZ4 trades at 109-20.5 (-6.5), 10Y yield +.0138 ast 4.410%, inside the technicals: with resistance above at 110-12 (20-day EMA) vs. initial support at 108-30 (Low Nov 15).
  • Curves flattened (2s10s -1.610 to 9.550) while projected rate cuts into early 2025 recede vs. late Tuesday levels (*) : Dec'24 cumulative -13.9bp (-14.8bp), Jan'25 -20.8bp (-21.2bp), Mar'25 -34.8bp (-35.6bp), May'25 -43.1bp (-42.5bp).
  • Rates traded lower coming into the NY session amid chatter that Russia was open to a cease fire agreement with Ukraine. Reports that Ukraine fired another barrage of missiles at Russia, however, plus mildly hawkish comments from Fed Gov Cook, saw rates bounce off lows.
  • What little support there was quickly reversed after the $13B 20Y bond auction (912810UD8) tailed again: 4.680% high yield vs. 4.649% WI; 2.34x bid-to-cover vs. prior month's 2.51x (lowest since May). Indirect take-up climbed to 69.47% vs. 67.87% last month; direct bidder take-up fell to new low of 7.92% vs. 17.64% prior; primary dealer take-up surged to 22.61% (highest since May 2021) vs. 14.48% prior.
  • Equity markets eagerly await Nvidia's Q3 earnings after the close (around 1620ET). In the past five quarters, Nvidia sales have beaten consensus by an average of about $1.8 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
226 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Treasuries held moderately weaker after the bell, off session lows as geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine continued to buffet markets. After the bell, TYZ4 trades at 109-20.5 (-6.5), 10Y yield +.0138 ast 4.410%, inside the technicals: with resistance above at 110-12 (20-day EMA) vs. initial support at 108-30 (Low Nov 15).
  • Curves flattened (2s10s -1.610 to 9.550) while projected rate cuts into early 2025 recede vs. late Tuesday levels (*) : Dec'24 cumulative -13.9bp (-14.8bp), Jan'25 -20.8bp (-21.2bp), Mar'25 -34.8bp (-35.6bp), May'25 -43.1bp (-42.5bp).
  • Rates traded lower coming into the NY session amid chatter that Russia was open to a cease fire agreement with Ukraine. Reports that Ukraine fired another barrage of missiles at Russia, however, plus mildly hawkish comments from Fed Gov Cook, saw rates bounce off lows.
  • What little support there was quickly reversed after the $13B 20Y bond auction (912810UD8) tailed again: 4.680% high yield vs. 4.649% WI; 2.34x bid-to-cover vs. prior month's 2.51x (lowest since May). Indirect take-up climbed to 69.47% vs. 67.87% last month; direct bidder take-up fell to new low of 7.92% vs. 17.64% prior; primary dealer take-up surged to 22.61% (highest since May 2021) vs. 14.48% prior.
  • Equity markets eagerly await Nvidia's Q3 earnings after the close (around 1620ET). In the past five quarters, Nvidia sales have beaten consensus by an average of about $1.8 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.