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US TSYS: Higher Ahead Of Heavy Data Docket And Early Issuance

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries have extended yesterday’s late rally, broadly consolidating the steepening seen after the FOMC minutes, although the longer end have pared some of these gains over the past two hours.  
  • Latest headlines have been limited with the move coming ahead of a heavy pre-Thanksgiving data docket plus 7Y supply at the earlier than usual 1130ET after solid offerings from 2Y and 5Y already this week.
  • Cash yields are 2.4-4.2bp lower today, with 7s leading declines and 30s lagging.
  • 2s10s is little changed at 5.4bps, pulling away from Monday’s post-Bessent brief inversion.
  • The Mar 2025 is now the most active for Treasury futures with the roll broadly complete. TYH5 trades at 110-24 off earlier highs of 110-27 that pushed above Monday’s post-Bessent high of 110-24.
  • Note that the next downside target in the 10yr Yield is seen at 4.2205%, which would equate to 111-06.
  • Data: Headlined by the second Q3 GDP release, jobless claims and durable goods all at 0830ET before the monthly PCE report at 1000ET. See our thoughts on core PCE here.
  • Fedspeak: None scheduled but scope for pre-holiday unscheduled appearances.
  • Note/bond issuance: US to sell $44bn 7-Year notes - 91282CLZ2 (earlier time of 1130ET)
  • Bill issuance: US to sell $95bn 4-Week bills, $90bn 8-Week bills (10030ET), $64bn 17-Week bills (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries have extended yesterday’s late rally, broadly consolidating the steepening seen after the FOMC minutes, although the longer end have pared some of these gains over the past two hours.  
  • Latest headlines have been limited with the move coming ahead of a heavy pre-Thanksgiving data docket plus 7Y supply at the earlier than usual 1130ET after solid offerings from 2Y and 5Y already this week.
  • Cash yields are 2.4-4.2bp lower today, with 7s leading declines and 30s lagging.
  • 2s10s is little changed at 5.4bps, pulling away from Monday’s post-Bessent brief inversion.
  • The Mar 2025 is now the most active for Treasury futures with the roll broadly complete. TYH5 trades at 110-24 off earlier highs of 110-27 that pushed above Monday’s post-Bessent high of 110-24.
  • Note that the next downside target in the 10yr Yield is seen at 4.2205%, which would equate to 111-06.
  • Data: Headlined by the second Q3 GDP release, jobless claims and durable goods all at 0830ET before the monthly PCE report at 1000ET. See our thoughts on core PCE here.
  • Fedspeak: None scheduled but scope for pre-holiday unscheduled appearances.
  • Note/bond issuance: US to sell $44bn 7-Year notes - 91282CLZ2 (earlier time of 1130ET)
  • Bill issuance: US to sell $95bn 4-Week bills, $90bn 8-Week bills (10030ET), $64bn 17-Week bills (1130ET)