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US TSYS: Long End Reverses Powell Rally, Conf Board And 2Y Supply Ahead

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have trended lower through Asia and European hours, with 10s pushing back to pre-Powell lows and 30s through them. Crude oil futures may have given back a small part of yesterday's strong supply-driven gains but industrial metals are up strongly on the day. 
  • Cash yields are 1.5-3bps higher, with only really the front end lagging the move, whilst 2s10s has increased 1.4bps to -10.4bp but remains within recent ranges. 
  • TYU4 has touched a session low of 113-11+ (- 07+) in a further pullback from yesterday’s high of 113-30. There are heavy roll-related volumes ahead of first notice Aug 30. 
  • It’s a move closer to support at 113-00+ (20-day EMA) but a bullish trend structure is seen in place with resistance at 114-03 (Aug 6 high). 
  • Today see the Conference Board consumer survey in focus for data before 2Y supply after the July auction stopped through by 2.1bps along with strong details.  
  • Data: FHFA house prices Jun (0900ET), S&P CoreLogic house prices Jun (0900ET), Conf Board consumer survey Aug (1000ET), Richmond Fed mfg Aug (1000ET), Dallas Fed services Aug (1030ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy to sell $69bn 2Y - 91282CLH2 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $75bn 42-day CMB (1130ET)

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