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US TSYS: Post-Fed Steepening Extends, Jobless Claims In Focus

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries have firmly moved off early overnight lows as European participants react to the FOMC cutting by 50bps (50/50 priced between 25bp or 50bp cuts) although Powell passing it off as a recalibration of policy has helped limit the extent for gains currently.
  • With the median FOMC participant marking up their unemployment rate forecast by four tenths to 4.4% for 4Q24 (4.2% as of Aug) but then expecting no further deterioration from there, expect today’s jobless claims data to headline the docket.
  • Potential spillover from the BoE decision could also be seen at 0700ET.
  • Cash yields range from 3.2bp lower (2s) to 0.4bp higher (30s) as curves continue to steepen. 2YY at 3.588% are almost 7bps below intraday highs.
  • 2s10s has set a fresh ytd high of 12bps, currently at 11.6bps (+2.8bp on the day).
  • TYZ4 sits at 115-00 (-02+) on solid volumes of 455k off an overnight low of 114-22. That low chimed with support at 114-22+ (20-day EMA) whilst the trend needle points north with resistance at 115-23+ (Sep 11 high).
  • Data: Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), Current account Q2 (0830ET), Philly Fed mfg Sep (0830ET), Existing home sales Aug (1000ET), Conf Board leading index Aug (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Still in blackout until tonight
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $17B 10Y TIPS re-open (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $80B each 4- & 8W Bill auctions (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries have firmly moved off early overnight lows as European participants react to the FOMC cutting by 50bps (50/50 priced between 25bp or 50bp cuts) although Powell passing it off as a recalibration of policy has helped limit the extent for gains currently.
  • With the median FOMC participant marking up their unemployment rate forecast by four tenths to 4.4% for 4Q24 (4.2% as of Aug) but then expecting no further deterioration from there, expect today’s jobless claims data to headline the docket.
  • Potential spillover from the BoE decision could also be seen at 0700ET.
  • Cash yields range from 3.2bp lower (2s) to 0.4bp higher (30s) as curves continue to steepen. 2YY at 3.588% are almost 7bps below intraday highs.
  • 2s10s has set a fresh ytd high of 12bps, currently at 11.6bps (+2.8bp on the day).
  • TYZ4 sits at 115-00 (-02+) on solid volumes of 455k off an overnight low of 114-22. That low chimed with support at 114-22+ (20-day EMA) whilst the trend needle points north with resistance at 115-23+ (Sep 11 high).
  • Data: Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), Current account Q2 (0830ET), Philly Fed mfg Sep (0830ET), Existing home sales Aug (1000ET), Conf Board leading index Aug (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Still in blackout until tonight
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $17B 10Y TIPS re-open (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $80B each 4- & 8W Bill auctions (1130ET)