US TSYS: RISK-ON WEEK OPENER, NEW EQUITY ALL-TIME HIGHS

US TSY SUMMARY: Much the way it started the session -- new week kicked off with

risk-on tone w/DC sending positive signals over US/China trade over weekend,

equities making new all-time highs (ESZ9 around 3083.75). Rates traded weaker,

hitting session lows ahead midday albeit amid ight volume w/Japan out for one

day holiday, TYZ <965k by the bell.

- MNI EXCLUSIVE: China Won't Cede On Key Trade Issues: Advisors saw brief period

of short cover/risk-on unwinding, but but momentum from higher equities held

sway.

- Large Block sale 20,000 TYZ at 129-21.5 helped trigger mid-morning gap move

lower, corporate deal-tied hedging added to pressure (over $11B to price Mon)

- Yld curves bear steepening, w/3M10Y making new 8 month high (27.243).

- The 2-Yr yield is up 3.6bps at 1.5882%, 5-Yr is up 5.6bps at 1.5982%, 10-Yr is

up 7.4bps at 1.784%, and 30-Yr is up 8.2bps at 2.2717%.

US TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Steady risk-on tone all day Monday, new all-time highs in

equities (ESZ9 3083.75) weighed on Tsy futures, near midday lows by the bell.

Quiet trade on light volume however, TYZ<965k. Yld curves bear steepened w/3M10Y

making new eight month highs. Update:

* 3M10Y  +4.830, 23.985 (L: 21.42 / H: 27.243)

* 2Y10Y  +3.757, 19.18 (L: 15.612 / H: 19.533)

* 2Y30Y  +4.505, 67.873 (L: 63.321 / H: 68.49)

* 5Y30Y  +2.389, 66.951 (L: 64.039 / H: 67.48)

Current futures levels:

* Dec 2-Yr futures down 2.125/32  at 107-21 (L: 107-20.37 / H: 107-23.25)

* Dec 5-Yr futures down 7/32  at 118-25.5 (L: 118-24.25 / H: 119-01.5)

* Dec 10-Yr futures down 13.5/32  at 129-19 (L: 129-17 / H: 130-02.5)

* Dec 30-Yr futures down 1-4/32  at 159-16 (L: 159-09 / H: 160-26)

* Dec Ultra futures down 2-2/32  at 186-16 (L: 186-06 / H: 188-30)

US EURODLR FUTURES CLOSE: Near session lows after the bell, Whites outperform.

Current White pack (Dec 19-Sep 20): 

* Dec 19 -0.010 at 98.090

* Mar 20 -0.020 at 98.325

* Jun 20 -0.035 at 98.405

* Sep 20 -0.045 at 98.460

* Red Pack (Dec 20-Sep 21) -0.055 to -0.045

* Green Pack (Dec 21-Sep 22) -0.06 to -0.055

* Blue Pack (Dec 22-Sep 23) -0.065 to -0.055

* Gold Pack (Dec 23-Sep 24) -0.065

US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles

* O/N -0.0413 at 1.5509% (-0.2138 last wk)

* 1 Month -0.0033 to 1.7710% (-0.0305 last wk)

* 3 Month +0.0177 to 1.9083% (-0.0377 last wk)

* 6 Month +0.0222 to 1.9246% (-0.0308 last wk)

* 1 Year +0.0348 to 1.9600% (-0.0306 last wk)

STIR: Federal Reserve Bank of New York EFFR for prior session:

* Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 1.57%, volume: $83B

* Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 1.56%, volume: $176B

US TSYS: REPO REFERENCE RATES: (rate, volume),

* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 1.58%, $1.118T

* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 1.55%, $477B

* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 1.55%, $445B

OUTLOOK: *** US Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate):

05-Nov 0830 Sep trade balance (-$54.9B, -$52.5B)

05-Nov 0855 02-Nov Redbook retail sales m/m (0.0%, --)

05-Nov 0945 Oct Markit Services Index (final)

05-Nov 1000 Oct ISM Non-manufacturing Index (52.6, 53.4)

05-Nov 1000 Sep JOLTS job openings level (7.051m, --) 

05-Nov 1000 Sep JOLTS quits rate (2.3%, --)

05-Nov 1000 Nov IBD/TIPP Optimism Index (52.6, --)

05-Nov 1240 Dallas Fed Pres Kaplan, Real Estate Council, Q&A

05-Nov 1300 US Tsy $38B 3Y Note auction (912828YR5) 

05-Nov 1800 Mn Fed Pres Kashkari, moderated Q&A Thrivent Financial conf

PIPELINE: Shell, Credit Suisse launch late; $11.325B to price Monday

Date $MM Issuer/Rating/Desc/Maturity/Yld; Priced *; Launch #:

11/04 $4B #Shell $1.25B 5Y +47, $1.5B 10Y +68, $1.25B 30Y +95

11/04 $2B #Credit Suisse WNG 2Y +52

11/04 $2B #Sinopec $700M 5Y +93, $1B 10Y +122.5, $300M 30Y

11/04 $1B #Excel Energy Inc $500M 10Y +90, $500M 30Y +125

11/04 $525M #Baker Hughes WNG 10Y +135

11/04 $300M #Commonwealth Edison WNG 30Y +97

11/04 $500M Brazil 10Y +220a, $Benchmark 30Y +280a

11/04 $500M *Caterpillar WNG 5Y +57

11/04 $500M *Posco 3Y +97.5

11/05 $Benchmark Province of Alberta 5Y +30a

11/?? Chatter: Sprint

11/?? Chatter: T-Mobile US 

Eurodollar/Tsy options: 

Eurodollar Options

* +5,000 short Mar 86/90/93 call flys, 5.5

* -2,500 Mar 83/86/88/90 call condors, 6.5

* -5,000 Jun 83 straddles w/Jun 86/87 call spd, 33.5

* +25,000 Dec 81 calls, 3.75

* -15,000 Nov 81 calls w/Dec 81/83 call spd strip, 3.75

* +10,000 Sep 97/100 call spds, 0.5 vs. 98.49/0.05%

* -7,500 short Dec 86/88 call spds 1.5 over short Dec 82 puts

* -4,000 Red Dec'20 85 straddles, 49.0

* -5,000 Mar 82/83 call spds, 5.5

Block, 0910:12ET adds to 8k earlier, traders say double sale

* -10,000 Nov 80/81/82 call flys 7.0 w/

* -10,000 Dec 81 calls, 3.5

Block, 0840:40ET adds to 20k earlier

* +15,000 short Dec 81 puts, 1.0 vs. 98.41/0.05%

Block, 0832:45ET

* 20,000 short Dec 81 puts, 1.0 vs. 98.41/0.05%

* +10,000 Red Dec 97/100 call spds, 0.5 vs. 98.49/0.05%

* 5,000 Green Jan 77 puts, 5.5

* 8,000 short Dec 82 puts, 1.5 vs. 98.48

* 1,000 short Dec 81/82/86/87 call condors, 9.5

* 6,000 short Dec 83/85 2x1 put spds on screen

Overnight screen trade/block recap

* over -33,500 Dec 83 calls, 0.5

* 6,000 Green Jan 81 puts, 1.5

* 5,000 Mar 81 puts

* 8,000 Nov 80/81/82 call flys 3.5 over Dec 81 calls, BLOCK

Tsy options:

* 7,500 wk2 FV 119.25/119.5 call spds, 1

* 5,000 TYZ 129.25 puts, 21/64 vs.

* 3,500 TYF 128 puts, 16/64

* +3,300 TYZ 128.5/131 strangles, 12

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]