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US TSYS: Treading Water Ahead Of A Stacked Docket

US TSYS
  • Treasuries hold narrow ranges amidst particularly low volumes ahead of a heavy docket including weekly jobless claims (after heightened sensitivity to them last week) and retail sales to name a few. Adding to an unusually heavy data docket, Walmart earnings will be watched at 0700ET.
  • Cash yields sit between 0.7bp lower (2s) and 0.3bps higher (20s and 30s) on the day. 
  • 2s10s at -11.2bps (+0.5bps) is within recent ranges. 
  • TYU4 at 113-21+ (- 03) is within a just 4+ tick range and firmly within yesterday’s CPI-induced range of 113-13+ to 114-02. Volumes are very subdued at 200k. 
  • The trend needle points higher, with yesterday’s snap high stopping just short of resistance at 114-03 (Aug 6 high) after which lies the bull trigger at 115-03+ (Aug 5 high). To the downside, support is seen at 112-11 (20-day EMA).  
  • Data: Retail sales Jul (0830ET), Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), International prices (0830ET), Empire mfg Aug (0830ET), Philly Fed Aug (0830ET), IP/Cap util Jul (0915ET), Business inventories Jun (1000ET), NAHB housing market index Aug (1000ET), TIC flows Jun (1600ET)
  • Fedspeak: Musalem (0910ET), Harker (1310ET) – see STIR bullet. 
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $95B 4W, $90B 8W Bill auctions (1130ET)

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