US TSYS:TRUMP TAMPS CHINA TRADE ANGST, CLARIDA TAMPS HIKE ODDS

US TSY SUMMARY: Rates finishing strong even as equities make attempt to revisit

midday highs. Second half vol: risk-off move that was gaining momentum before

myriad headlines where he heralded his great relationship with China, that they

would make a deal. Trump also announced he had finished but had not submitted

answers to Mueller probe questions. SPX climbed to 2748.75. Risk-off to the fore

soon after as WH said "president was simply expressing optimism about ongoing

negotiations with the Chinese when he said the US may not have to impose

additional tariffs," CNBC reported.

- Modest two way-flow earlier reverted to better buying in 5s-10s into midday,

prop, fast- and real$ selling intermediates to long end last few minutes.

Ongoing block buys (likely short covering) in TUZ (+15k from 105-14.5 to

-15.25). Decent Dec/Mar futures rolls in 2s and 5s helping pad volume.

- Eurodlr Reds-Greens surged after Fed vice chairman Clarida gave an interview

with CNBC giving a dovish tone towards future rate hikes. Tsy cash/ylds: 2Y

100-03.75 (2.808%), 5Y 99-29.5 (2.890%), 10Y 100-14 (3.072%), 30Y 100-28

(3.328%).

US TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Trading moderately higher, just off new session highs;

strong volume (TYZ 1.63M); curves steeper; update:

* 2s10s +0.556, 25.788 (23.681L/27.796H);

* 2s30s +1.109, 51.228 (48.225L/55.359H);

* 5s30s +1.480, 43.438 (40.934L/46.891H);

Current futures levels:

* Dec Ultra bonds up 1-04/32 at 151-10 (150-05L/151-12H)

* Dec 30-yr Bond futures up 27/32 at 139-20 (138-22L/139-22H)

* Dec 10-yr futures up 12/32 at 119-06 (118-24.5L/119-07H)

* Dec 5-yr futures up 08/32 at 112-26.5 (112-17.75L/112-28H)

* Dec 2-yr futures up 3.25/32 at 105-15.25 (105-11.5L/105-15.75H)

US TSY FUTURES: *** Dec to Mar futures roll volume kicked off this week, 2s and

5s leading the charge well ahead first notice date of November 30. Probably not

a surprise as some move to roll before next week's Thanksgiving holiday

closures. December future's staggered expiration on December 19 for 10s, 30s and

Ultras, and December 31 for 2s and 5s. Latest volume and % complete as of Thu's

close:

* TUZ/TUH appr 58.9k, 1.25 last; 7.0% complete

* FVZ/FVH appr 64.1k, 2.00 last; 7.0% complete

* TYZ/TYH appr 19.7k, 5.75 last; 4.0% complete

* USZ/USH only 500, 20.0 last; 2.0% complete

* WNZ/WNH appr 8.6k, 24.50 last; 1% complete

US EURODOLLAR FUTURES CLOSE: Trading moderately to sharply higher after Fed vice

chairman Clarida gave an interview with CNBC giving a dovish tone towards future

rate hikes; heavy volume. Current White pack (Dec'18-Sep'19):

* Dec'18 +0.020 at 97.265

* Jun'19 +0.040 at 97.160

* Jun'19 +0.050 at 97.045

* Sep'18 +0.055 at 96.970

* Red pack (Dec'19-Sep'20) +0.075-0.065

* Green pack (Dec'20-Sep'21) +0.070-0.060

* Blue pack (Dec'21-Sep'21) +0.060-0.050

* Gold pack (Dec'22-Sep'22) +0.050-0.045

US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles, 

* O/N -0.0044 to 2.1753% (-0.0001/wk)

* 1 Month -0.0017 to 2.3008% (-0.0136/wk)

* 3 Month +0.0045 to 2.6445% (+0.0264/wk)

* 6 Month +0.0024 to 2.8626% (+0.0046/wk)

* 1 Year +0.0053 to 3.1236% (-0.0204/wk)

US TSYS: *** /REPO REFERENCE RATES: (rate, volume)

* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 2.28% vs. 2.20% prior, $846B

* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 2.26% vs. 2.17% prior, $436B

* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 2.26% vs. 2.17% prior, $413B

US SWAPS: Spds reverse mostly wider levels later in session, hold rather narrow

overall range, however. Light 2-way in 2s-10s on day, no deal-tied hedging to

speak of w/next week's supply expected to be nil. Latest spd levels:

* 2Y -0.31/19.38

* 5Y +0.12/14.50

* 10Y -0.19/6.25

* 30Y -0.44/-10.81

PIPELINE: No new corporate issuance, $21.32B priced on week

OUTLOOK: Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate): 

- Nov 19 NY Fed Pres Williams, Per Scholas project site visit, NY. 0940ET

- Nov 19 Q3 e-commerce retail sales 1000ET

- Nov 19 Nov NAHB home builder index (68.0, --) 1000ET

- Nov 19 NY Fed Pres Williams, moderated discussion/Q&A Bronx Museum of Arts, NY

1045ET

- Nov 19 US Tsy $42B 13W bill auction (912796QY8) 1130ET

- Nov 19 US Tsy $36B 26W bill auction (912796QH5) 1130ET

- Nov 19 NY Fed Pres Williams, HERE to HERE leadership meeting, NY 1515ET

Eurodollar/Treasury Option Summary

Eurodollar options, Pit/screen:

* 23,000 Long Green Dec 95 puts at 1, on screen

* 10,000 Red Dec 70/75 1x2 call sprd at 4.5 vs 9694/0.10%

* 5,000 Red Sep 75/77 call sprd at 5

* 7,500 Mar 75/80 call sprd at 1

* 6,000 Short Dec 66/67 put sprd at 1

* 4,000 Short Dec 68/70 call sprd at 4.5

Block, 1216:32, ongoing front-end block buys

* +9,000 TUZ 105-15.25, post-time offer

* +10,000 Mar 75/80 call spds, 1.0 vs. 97.15

* 8,000 Mar 70/71 put sprd at 5, note recent 7,500 at 4.75

* 3,500 Green Dec 67 puts at 2.5 vs 9690.5/0.20%

* 2,500 Jan 72/73 call sprd at 1.5

* 7,500 Mar 70/71 put sprd at 4.75

* 5,000 Sep 65/76 Strangle at 5.5

* 9,000 Green Dec 67 calls at 20 vs 9693/0.80%

* +20,000 Blue Sep 80 calls at 4.5, note yesterdays +80k at 4

* +12,750 Jan 68 puts at 0.25

* 9,000 Green Dec 67 puts at 2 vs 9693.5/0.16%

* 10,000 Short Dec 71/72 call sprd at 2, note recent -10k sold at 1 vs

9690.5/0.10%

* -10,000 Short Dec 71/72 call sprd at 1 vs 9690.5/0.10%

* 10,000 Mar 72/73 1x2 call sprd at CAB

* +10,000 Short Dec 70/71 1x2 call sprd at 0

UPDATE: Total 10,000 Nov/Dec 73 put sprd at 0.75

* +10,000 Green Dec 65 puts at 0.5 vs 9690.5/0.10%

* 5,000 Nov/Dec 73 put sprd at 0.75

* -10,000 Short Jan 70 calls at 1.5 over Blue Jan 71 calls

* 5,000 Short Dec 67 puts at 2

* +25,000 Mar 72/73/75 call fly at 1.5

* -11,000 Dec 72 Straddles at 6.5, adds to -5k Dec 72/Short Dec 68 Straddle Sprd

at 21

* +15,000 Dec 73 calls at 0.75

* -5,000 Dec 72/Short Dec 68 Straddle Sprd at 21

* +10,000 Dec 72 calls, 3.25

* +5,000 Dec 72 calls, 3.25

* 2,000 Nov/Dec 72 put spds

* near 8,500 Green Nov 68 combos, unwind ahead today's Nov options expiry

Tsy options, Pit/screen:

* 1,000 TYF 117.5/119 3x2 put spds, 27/64 net vs. 118-31

* +6,000 USZ 138 at 8

* +8,000 TYF 120 calls at 15 vs 04/0.22%, note +6.5k earlier at 14 vs 02/0.22%

* +5,000 TYH 117.5 puts, 29/64

* Total +30,000 FVZ 112 puts at 1 vs 19.5/0.05%, on screen

* +6,500 TYF 120 calls at 14 vs 02/0.22%

* +2,500 FVZ 112 puts at 1 vs 19.5/0.05%

* 25,000 TYZ 119.75 calls at 4, on screen

* +5,000 TYH 117.5 puts, 29/64

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]