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US TSYS: Tsy Curves Resume Bear Flattening, Rate Cut Cut Pricing Cools

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries look to finish the week opener near session lows, heavy carry-over selling after last Friday's larger than expected September jobs gain and dip in the unemployment rate to 4.1%.
  • Curves dis-inverted briefly, 2s10s flattening to -1.248 before finishing around 3.273 (-.878) after the bell - compares to nearly +20.0 early last week. Note, 2Y yield climbed to 4.0223% high, 10Y yield tapped 4.0314% high.
  • Meanwhile, projected rate cuts continue to recede -- November not fully pricing a 25bp cut now: Nov'24 cumulative -22bp (-26.6bp late Fri), Dec'24 -48.5bp (-57.2bp), Jan'25 -68.4bp (-80.9bp).
  • Limited if any reaction to Fed speakers today, MN Fed President Kashkari said risks of higher inflation is waning as he defended his 50bp rate cut decision, sees neutral rate at around 3%
  • Limited data today and tomorrow, focus on Wednesday's minutes for the September FOMC, CPI on Thursday and PPI Friday. Note, Friday also sees the start of the latest earnings cycle with Bank of NY Mellon, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Blackrock announcing.
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  • Treasuries look to finish the week opener near session lows, heavy carry-over selling after last Friday's larger than expected September jobs gain and dip in the unemployment rate to 4.1%.
  • Curves dis-inverted briefly, 2s10s flattening to -1.248 before finishing around 3.273 (-.878) after the bell - compares to nearly +20.0 early last week. Note, 2Y yield climbed to 4.0223% high, 10Y yield tapped 4.0314% high.
  • Meanwhile, projected rate cuts continue to recede -- November not fully pricing a 25bp cut now: Nov'24 cumulative -22bp (-26.6bp late Fri), Dec'24 -48.5bp (-57.2bp), Jan'25 -68.4bp (-80.9bp).
  • Limited if any reaction to Fed speakers today, MN Fed President Kashkari said risks of higher inflation is waning as he defended his 50bp rate cut decision, sees neutral rate at around 3%
  • Limited data today and tomorrow, focus on Wednesday's minutes for the September FOMC, CPI on Thursday and PPI Friday. Note, Friday also sees the start of the latest earnings cycle with Bank of NY Mellon, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Blackrock announcing.