MNI: US NOV FINAL MANUF PMI 49.7 (FLASH 48.8); OCT 48.5

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

MNI: UK NOV FINAL MANUF PMI 48.0 (FLASH 48.6); OCT 49.9

MNI NBP WATCH: Another Policy Hold, Dovish Communications Tilt

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY216 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1865 Mon; -1.50% Y/Y

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Spain, Belgium, ESM Auction on Tuesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK, Germany Auction on Tuesday

MNI: US OCT CONSTRUCT SPENDING +0.4%

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US TSYS: Tsys Futures Edge Higher, Ex-Fed Dudley Sees 50bps Cut Chance

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Tsys futures are higher today, although all the moves came in the first half of the session which looked like a follow on from a large block trade made post the NY close which looked like a bet on a 50bps cut next week. Fed fund futures firmed post the trade with the market pricing moving from a 10% chance of a 50bps cut to about a 45bps chance now.
  • Ex-NY Fed Pres Dudley sees a strong case for a half-point rate cut at the FOMC meeting, citing a weakening U.S. labor market and risks to jobs outweighing inflation concerns. While most expect a quarter-point cut, Dudley emphasized Powell's reluctance to allow further labor market weakness, and noted that some Wall Street banks, like Citigroup and JPMorgan, are pushing for more aggressive action.
  • There was little reaction in tsys futures to the comments from Dudley, with TUZ4 now +03 ⅜ at 104-12⅞, while TYZ4 is +07+ at 115-13.
  • The cash tsys curve has steepened with yield 1-6bps lower. The 2yr is now -5.5bps at 3.584%, while the 10yr is -2.8bps at 3.646% the 2s10s is +2.583 at 5.915
  • There was just the one Block traded today, a likely seller of TYZ4 at 115-12+, DV01 $135k, contract little changed since.
  • Projected rate hikes have firmed throughout the session vs Thursday open levels (*) : Sep'24 cumulative -37.7bp (-29.4bp), Nov'24 cumulative -76.2bp (-65.2bp), Dec'24 -117.6bp (-106.0bp).
  • Later today we have Import/Export Prices and U. of Mich. Sentiment.
239 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Tsys futures are higher today, although all the moves came in the first half of the session which looked like a follow on from a large block trade made post the NY close which looked like a bet on a 50bps cut next week. Fed fund futures firmed post the trade with the market pricing moving from a 10% chance of a 50bps cut to about a 45bps chance now.
  • Ex-NY Fed Pres Dudley sees a strong case for a half-point rate cut at the FOMC meeting, citing a weakening U.S. labor market and risks to jobs outweighing inflation concerns. While most expect a quarter-point cut, Dudley emphasized Powell's reluctance to allow further labor market weakness, and noted that some Wall Street banks, like Citigroup and JPMorgan, are pushing for more aggressive action.
  • There was little reaction in tsys futures to the comments from Dudley, with TUZ4 now +03 ⅜ at 104-12⅞, while TYZ4 is +07+ at 115-13.
  • The cash tsys curve has steepened with yield 1-6bps lower. The 2yr is now -5.5bps at 3.584%, while the 10yr is -2.8bps at 3.646% the 2s10s is +2.583 at 5.915
  • There was just the one Block traded today, a likely seller of TYZ4 at 115-12+, DV01 $135k, contract little changed since.
  • Projected rate hikes have firmed throughout the session vs Thursday open levels (*) : Sep'24 cumulative -37.7bp (-29.4bp), Nov'24 cumulative -76.2bp (-65.2bp), Dec'24 -117.6bp (-106.0bp).
  • Later today we have Import/Export Prices and U. of Mich. Sentiment.