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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Edge Slightly Lower, Middle East Tension Cools

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Tsys futures closed slightly lower on Monday, although well of session lows. Futures saw some volatile prices action overnight with initial support seen following increased tensions in the middle east, this was quickly unwound after Iran president said he is willing to ease tensions. Comments from fed officials also fueled weakness in the market after comments were made about there being a high bar for additional 50bps cut this year.
  • Futures also extended lows after Flash PMIs showed renewed price pressures but softer employment. Manufacturing: 47.0 (cons 48.6) in Sept prelim after 47.9 in Aug; Services: 55.4 (cons 55.2) after 55.7; Composite: 54.4 (cons 54.3) after 54.6.
  • TU closed -0-00⅛ at 104-11⅛, while TY closed -0-02+ at 114-24+ with the contract breaching 114-23 support (20-day EMA) briefly.
  • Cash tsys curves bear-steepened, yields closed -0.5bps to +1bps. The 2yr closed -0.4bps at 3.587%, while the 10yr closed +00.8bps at 3.749%. The 2s10s hit a new high of 18, before closing the session +1.389 at 16.00
  • Projected rate cuts into early 2025 rebound, latest vs. this Monday levels (*) as follows: Nov'24 cumulative -38.5bp (-36.5bp), Dec'24 -75.9bp (-72.8bp), Jan'25 -110.0bp (-107.0bp).
  • Focus turns to House Price index data including Consumer Confidence and regional Fed mfg data. US Tsy to auction $69B 2Y notes as well as $60B 42D CMB bills.
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  • Tsys futures closed slightly lower on Monday, although well of session lows. Futures saw some volatile prices action overnight with initial support seen following increased tensions in the middle east, this was quickly unwound after Iran president said he is willing to ease tensions. Comments from fed officials also fueled weakness in the market after comments were made about there being a high bar for additional 50bps cut this year.
  • Futures also extended lows after Flash PMIs showed renewed price pressures but softer employment. Manufacturing: 47.0 (cons 48.6) in Sept prelim after 47.9 in Aug; Services: 55.4 (cons 55.2) after 55.7; Composite: 54.4 (cons 54.3) after 54.6.
  • TU closed -0-00⅛ at 104-11⅛, while TY closed -0-02+ at 114-24+ with the contract breaching 114-23 support (20-day EMA) briefly.
  • Cash tsys curves bear-steepened, yields closed -0.5bps to +1bps. The 2yr closed -0.4bps at 3.587%, while the 10yr closed +00.8bps at 3.749%. The 2s10s hit a new high of 18, before closing the session +1.389 at 16.00
  • Projected rate cuts into early 2025 rebound, latest vs. this Monday levels (*) as follows: Nov'24 cumulative -38.5bp (-36.5bp), Dec'24 -75.9bp (-72.8bp), Jan'25 -110.0bp (-107.0bp).
  • Focus turns to House Price index data including Consumer Confidence and regional Fed mfg data. US Tsy to auction $69B 2Y notes as well as $60B 42D CMB bills.