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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Hold Onto Gains, Curve Bull-Flattens On Bessent Nom

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Tsys futures rallied this morning following Scott Bessent being announced as the Treasury Secretary nomination, the market views him as taking a more phased approach on tariffs and attempting to rein in the budget deficit. TU is 01⅝ at 102-18+, while TY is +11+ at 110-00 both near session's best levels.
  • The 10y futures contract is still trading below initial resistance of 110-06 (20-day EMA), and remains in the bear trend for now, support holds at 108-30 (Nov 15 lows).
  • There has been little else driving the markets today, Gold is lower following a strong rally late last week, while equity futures are slightly higher, however have traded in narrow ranges post the open.
  • Cash tsys are trading 3-5.5bps richer this morning, the 2yr is trading -3.2bps at 4.341% while the 10yr is -5.3bps at 4.347%. Curves have bull-flattened with the 2s30s 1.5bps lower at 19.25, this follows a 4bps flattening move on Friday. The 2s10s briefly inverted earlier hitting -0.186, but is now back at 0.632
  • In the week to Nov. 19, hedge funds unwound $15.6m/DV01 in short positions across 2-, 5-, and 10-year Treasury notes and $5.2m/DV01 in ultra-long bonds, while asset managers reduced $4.9m/DV01 in long-bond positions but increased $3.3m/DV01 in ultra 10-year note futures. In SOFR futures, hedge funds cut $5m/DV01 in net longs to their lowest since July, as asset managers made minor additions to net long positions.
  • Later today we have Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index & Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
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  • Tsys futures rallied this morning following Scott Bessent being announced as the Treasury Secretary nomination, the market views him as taking a more phased approach on tariffs and attempting to rein in the budget deficit. TU is 01⅝ at 102-18+, while TY is +11+ at 110-00 both near session's best levels.
  • The 10y futures contract is still trading below initial resistance of 110-06 (20-day EMA), and remains in the bear trend for now, support holds at 108-30 (Nov 15 lows).
  • There has been little else driving the markets today, Gold is lower following a strong rally late last week, while equity futures are slightly higher, however have traded in narrow ranges post the open.
  • Cash tsys are trading 3-5.5bps richer this morning, the 2yr is trading -3.2bps at 4.341% while the 10yr is -5.3bps at 4.347%. Curves have bull-flattened with the 2s30s 1.5bps lower at 19.25, this follows a 4bps flattening move on Friday. The 2s10s briefly inverted earlier hitting -0.186, but is now back at 0.632
  • In the week to Nov. 19, hedge funds unwound $15.6m/DV01 in short positions across 2-, 5-, and 10-year Treasury notes and $5.2m/DV01 in ultra-long bonds, while asset managers reduced $4.9m/DV01 in long-bond positions but increased $3.3m/DV01 in ultra 10-year note futures. In SOFR futures, hedge funds cut $5m/DV01 in net longs to their lowest since July, as asset managers made minor additions to net long positions.
  • Later today we have Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index & Dallas Fed Manf. Activity