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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Off Earlier Lows, Curve Bear-Steepens

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Tsys futures have continued the sell-off from Friday. The Trump trade could be largely behind the move, with betting markets now showing he has he largest lead since the Sept debate against Harris. Polymarket sees the odds now 65.1% vs 34.9%, although they now have Michigan closer than last week. While RealClearPolitics Poll average, has Trump in front 48.5 vs 48.4 for the first time since Aug 4th.
  • Outside of Trump pushing further ahead in betting markets, there hasn't been much in the way of headlines, oil has plunged following cooling tensions in the middle east, although this did little to support tsys.
  • Volumes have surged today, TU is -02⅛ at 103-02, while TY is -09+ at 110-24+, we trade just off session lows.
  • As noted earlier, late Friday traders were purchasing 10yr tsys options targeting a rise in yields to around 4.5% ahead of the Nov. 1 expiry.
  • Tsys curve continues to bear-steepen, the 10yr is +3.6bps at 4.276%, while the 30yr yield is now testing the July 24 highs of 4.54%. The 2s30s curve has steepened 1.5bps to 40.50, although the curve is still about 20bps off its recent highs made late September.
  • There is little on the data calendar for the day ahead.
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  • Tsys futures have continued the sell-off from Friday. The Trump trade could be largely behind the move, with betting markets now showing he has he largest lead since the Sept debate against Harris. Polymarket sees the odds now 65.1% vs 34.9%, although they now have Michigan closer than last week. While RealClearPolitics Poll average, has Trump in front 48.5 vs 48.4 for the first time since Aug 4th.
  • Outside of Trump pushing further ahead in betting markets, there hasn't been much in the way of headlines, oil has plunged following cooling tensions in the middle east, although this did little to support tsys.
  • Volumes have surged today, TU is -02⅛ at 103-02, while TY is -09+ at 110-24+, we trade just off session lows.
  • As noted earlier, late Friday traders were purchasing 10yr tsys options targeting a rise in yields to around 4.5% ahead of the Nov. 1 expiry.
  • Tsys curve continues to bear-steepen, the 10yr is +3.6bps at 4.276%, while the 30yr yield is now testing the July 24 highs of 4.54%. The 2s30s curve has steepened 1.5bps to 40.50, although the curve is still about 20bps off its recent highs made late September.
  • There is little on the data calendar for the day ahead.