MNI BRIEF: BOJ Tankan: Business Inflation Expectations Solid

MNI BRIEF: RBA Details Hypothetical Monetary Policy Paths

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BOJ DEC TANKAN LARGE MFG INDEX +14; SEPT 13; MEDIAN +12

MNI INTERVIEW2: Poland To Push For EU Defence Fund

MNI: UK DEC GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX -17

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Belgium ORI Facility on Friday

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -190 BCF TO 3,747 BCF DEC 06 WK

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US TSYS: Tsys futures Steady Ahead of FOMC

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • It has been a slow start to the trading session today, US tsys futures trade slightly lower although ranges are tight. TU is -00¾ at 104-10⅞ while TY is -00+ at 115-11+. Cash tsys are trading about 0.5-1bps lower with better buying seen through the belly of the curve, the 2yr is trading at 3.598% and has rallied 34bps this month, the 10yr is trading at 3.636% down 1bp.
  • Tsys futures remain in a bullish theme with the TY contract holding on to its latest gains. Last Wednesday’s push higher resulted in a print above key resistance and the bull trigger at 115-19, the Aug 5 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards the 116.00 handle. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear medium-term uptrend. Firm support is seen at 114-23+, the 20-day EMA.
  • Investors are increasingly betting on a larger-than-expected half-point interest rate cut at this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, with activity in October fed funds futures reaching record levels since the contract's inception in 1988. Odds of a 50bps cut have increased recently with commentary from ex-Fed Pres Dudley following articles from WSJ & FT which leaned slightly dovish.
  • Market-implied odds now suggest just over a 50% chance of a half-point cut. If the Fed opts for a smaller quarter-point cut, analysts warn that the market could face a strong reaction, particularly in short-term US Treasuries. 
241 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • It has been a slow start to the trading session today, US tsys futures trade slightly lower although ranges are tight. TU is -00¾ at 104-10⅞ while TY is -00+ at 115-11+. Cash tsys are trading about 0.5-1bps lower with better buying seen through the belly of the curve, the 2yr is trading at 3.598% and has rallied 34bps this month, the 10yr is trading at 3.636% down 1bp.
  • Tsys futures remain in a bullish theme with the TY contract holding on to its latest gains. Last Wednesday’s push higher resulted in a print above key resistance and the bull trigger at 115-19, the Aug 5 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards the 116.00 handle. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear medium-term uptrend. Firm support is seen at 114-23+, the 20-day EMA.
  • Investors are increasingly betting on a larger-than-expected half-point interest rate cut at this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, with activity in October fed funds futures reaching record levels since the contract's inception in 1988. Odds of a 50bps cut have increased recently with commentary from ex-Fed Pres Dudley following articles from WSJ & FT which leaned slightly dovish.
  • Market-implied odds now suggest just over a 50% chance of a half-point cut. If the Fed opts for a smaller quarter-point cut, analysts warn that the market could face a strong reaction, particularly in short-term US Treasuries.