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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Steady, Curve Steepens Slightly Ahead Of Fed Speak

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Tsys futures have traded in narrow ranges throughout the session, there was earlier a TU/UXY block steepener, and a block seller of FV. TU is +00⅞ at 103-13¼, while TY is trading +01 at 112-02+
  • Cash tsy curve has twist-steepened, yields are +/-1bps. The 2yr is -0.9bps at 3.963%, while the 10yr is trading unchanged at 4.091%.
  • Focus in the region today has been all on China data, with GDP coming in slightly above estimates at 4.6% vs 4.5% expected, retail sales 3.2% vs 2.5% & Industrial Production 5.4% vs 4.6%. China's banks have also cut yuan deposit rates.
  • Fed fund futures are pricing in 23bps or 92% chance of a cut at the November meeting, and 43.3bps of cuts by the December meeting both little changed over the past few sessions. Looking further out the curve there is 143.6bps priced in through to October 2025.
  • Today's data schedule is a little less eventful, with housing starts/building permits featuring. We get plenty of Fed speakers though, including Bostic, Kashkari, Waller, and Bostic.
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  • Tsys futures have traded in narrow ranges throughout the session, there was earlier a TU/UXY block steepener, and a block seller of FV. TU is +00⅞ at 103-13¼, while TY is trading +01 at 112-02+
  • Cash tsy curve has twist-steepened, yields are +/-1bps. The 2yr is -0.9bps at 3.963%, while the 10yr is trading unchanged at 4.091%.
  • Focus in the region today has been all on China data, with GDP coming in slightly above estimates at 4.6% vs 4.5% expected, retail sales 3.2% vs 2.5% & Industrial Production 5.4% vs 4.6%. China's banks have also cut yuan deposit rates.
  • Fed fund futures are pricing in 23bps or 92% chance of a cut at the November meeting, and 43.3bps of cuts by the December meeting both little changed over the past few sessions. Looking further out the curve there is 143.6bps priced in through to October 2025.
  • Today's data schedule is a little less eventful, with housing starts/building permits featuring. We get plenty of Fed speakers though, including Bostic, Kashkari, Waller, and Bostic.