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US TSYS: Tsys futures Steady, Ranges Narrow, Trump Weighing Up Tsy Secretary

US TSYS
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  • It has been an uneventful day in Tsys so far, range have been narrow, with little in the way of headlines.   TU is -00¼ at 102-20⅝, while TY is -02 at 109-15, the contract remains in a bear trend, key support is 108-18+ (1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 16 price swing), while resistance is seen at 109-30+ (Nov 13 highs).
  • Cash tsys curves steepened heading into Friday's close, with yields -4.5bps to +3bps, there has been little to note during the Asian session today, with yields flat to 1bps lower. The 2yr is 0.4bps at 4.299% holding steady in the middle of the past weeks range, the 10yr is -0.4bps at 4.435%, after briefly hitting 4.50% on Friday. The 2s10s is unchanged at 13.193 after steepening +4.5bps on Friday, while the 5s30s is +1bp 31.558.
  • Projected rate cuts have firmed slightly vs Friday morning's levels (*): Dec'24 cumulative -16.3bp (-15.6bp), Jan'25 -24.3bp (-22.5bp), Mar'25 -38.7bp (-36.3bp), May'25 -46.3bp (-43.6bp).
  • Trump is deliberating his Treasury Secretary pick, with Kevin Warsh and Marc Rowan emerging as contenders alongside prior frontrunners Howard Lutnick and Scott Bessent. Trump seeks a candidate with significant wealth and Wall Street status while avoiding choices that could disrupt market momentum or oppose his economic agenda.
  • The data calendar is light tonight, there will be a 3m & 6m note auction while Goolsbee is schedule to speak.
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  • It has been an uneventful day in Tsys so far, range have been narrow, with little in the way of headlines.   TU is -00¼ at 102-20⅝, while TY is -02 at 109-15, the contract remains in a bear trend, key support is 108-18+ (1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 16 price swing), while resistance is seen at 109-30+ (Nov 13 highs).
  • Cash tsys curves steepened heading into Friday's close, with yields -4.5bps to +3bps, there has been little to note during the Asian session today, with yields flat to 1bps lower. The 2yr is 0.4bps at 4.299% holding steady in the middle of the past weeks range, the 10yr is -0.4bps at 4.435%, after briefly hitting 4.50% on Friday. The 2s10s is unchanged at 13.193 after steepening +4.5bps on Friday, while the 5s30s is +1bp 31.558.
  • Projected rate cuts have firmed slightly vs Friday morning's levels (*): Dec'24 cumulative -16.3bp (-15.6bp), Jan'25 -24.3bp (-22.5bp), Mar'25 -38.7bp (-36.3bp), May'25 -46.3bp (-43.6bp).
  • Trump is deliberating his Treasury Secretary pick, with Kevin Warsh and Marc Rowan emerging as contenders alongside prior frontrunners Howard Lutnick and Scott Bessent. Trump seeks a candidate with significant wealth and Wall Street status while avoiding choices that could disrupt market momentum or oppose his economic agenda.
  • The data calendar is light tonight, there will be a 3m & 6m note auction while Goolsbee is schedule to speak.