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US TSYS: Tsys Little Changed Ahead Of Further Employment Data

US TSYS
  • It has been a slow session for US tsys today, futures are off session highs and now trade little changed for the day. TUZ4 is trading at 104-02¾ vs 104-04 highs, while TYZ4 is 114-18 vs 114-22+ highs.
  • The cash tsys curve has retraced some of the overnight bull-steepening move, yields are about 1bps higher. The 2yr is +0.8bps at 3.762%, with the 10yr also +0.8bps at 3.763%, the 2s10s is -0.069 at -0.345 after overnight un-inverting and hitting highs of 0.464.
  • Earlier, the Fed's Daly stated that the Fed will need cut interest rates to maintain a healthy labor market, but the size of the cut will depend on incoming economic data. She emphasized the importance of avoiding overly tight policy, which could further slow the labor market, a scenario she finds undesirable. Daly expects the labor market to remain stable and continue expanding but is uncertain about the extent of the necessary rate cut.
  • Fed funds was pricing in a 50/50 chance of the 50bps cut at the September meeting, before softening a touch into the close overnight. Projected rate cut pricing through year end vs Tuesday close levels: Sep'24 cumulative -36bp (-34.4bp), Nov'24 cumulative -72.6bp (-67.6bp), Dec'24 -110.3bp (-102.4bp).
  • Later today we have Challenger Job Cuts, ADP private payrolls, nonfarm productivity, and weekly jobless claims. Additionally we get ISM Services (including its Employment component), and final August PMIs.
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USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America

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