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Free AccessUS TSYS: US TSY CURVES STEEPEN/APPROACH KEY LEVELS
US TSY SUMMARY: Tsys trading moderately lower into the bell, just off session
lows, strong volume (TYZ 1.54M). Large curve steepening today as 2s10s steepened
by 4.0bps while 5s30s jumped 2.0bps, both approaching their 50 day moving
averages; 10YY rises above 3.00%. Headline out this morning, "*CHINA SAYS
TARIFFS ON $60B OF U.S. GOODS EFFECTIVE SEPT. 24-BFW", led to slight risk-off
price action.
-US$ higher DXY +.145, 94.641 (94.315L/94.729H), $/Eur slightly lower -0.0020 at
1.1663, $/Yen higher +.50 112.34, (111.67L/112.39H); equities higher (emini
+19.00, 2915.00 vs. 2917.75H); Gold down (XAU -4.34, 1197.14); West Texas crude
higher (WTI +0.88, 69.79).
-Tsy cash/ylds: 2Y 99-21.3 (2.799%), 5Y 99-4.5(2.936%), 10Y 98-16.5 (3.048%),
30Y 96-6.5 (3.197%).
TECHNICALS:
US TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Trading moderately lower making new session lows into the
bell, strong volume (TYU 1.49M), Large curve steepening; update:
* 2s10s +3.844, 24.516 (20.189L/24.702H);
* 2s30s +4.572, 39.420 (34.731L/39.836H);
* 5s30s +1.999, 25.878 (23.655L/26.309H);
Current futures levels:
* Dec Ultra bonds down 1-17/32 at 154-10 (154-09L/156-09H)
* Dec 30-yr Bond futures down 31/32 at 140-21 (140-19L/141-31H)
* Dec 10-yr futures down 10/32 at 118-26 (118-25.5L/119-10.5H)
* Dec 5-yr futures down 4.5/32 at 112-15.5 (112-15.25L/112-24H)
* Dec 2-yr futures down 01/32 at 105-11.5 (105-11.5L/105-13.5H)
US EURODOLLAR FUTURES CLOSE: Trading mixed with the short end outperforming the
long end, at the bottom of the range with strong volume. Current White pack
(Sep'18-Jun'19):
* Dec'18 +0.010 at 97.370
* Mar'19 0.000 at 97.185
* Jun'19 -0.005 at 97.015
* Sep'19 -0.005 at 96.925
* Red pack (Sep'19-Jun'20) -0.030-0.015
* Green pack (Sep'20-Jun'21) -0.045-0.035
* Blue pack (Sep'21-Jun'21) -0.050-0.045
* Gold pack (Sep'22-Jun'22) -0.045
US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles,
* O/N +0.0043 to 1.9189% (+0.0038 wk)
* 1 Month -0.0028 to 2.1653% (+0.0006 wk)
* 3 Month -0.0013 to 2.3375% (+0.0004 wk)
* 6 Month -0.0029 to 2.5679% (-0.0009 wk)
* 1 Year +0.0001 to 2.8795% (-0.0007 wk)
US TSYS: *** /REPO REFERENCE RATES: (rate, volume)
* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 2.00% vs. 1.95% prior, $789B
* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 1.97% vs. 1.91% prior, $410B
* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 1.97% vs. 1.91% prior, $391B
PIPELINE: $2B CPPIB 5Y leads leads
Date $MM Issuer/Rating/Desc/Maturity/Yld/Leads; Priced *; Launch #:
09/18 $2B Canada Pension Plan Inv Board (CPPIB) 5Y MS+15
09/18 IADB 4Y
09/18 Wells Fargo 1.5Y FRN
09/18 EDF 10Y, 20Y, 30Y
09/18 BP Capital Mkts 7y, 10y
09/18 Japanese Finance (JFM) 5Y MS +44
09/18 Nissan Motor 3Y fix/FRN, 5Y fix/FRN
09/18 $500M ADB 10y+12
09/18 $1.5B Dexia 5Y MS +32
OUTLOOK:
- Sep 19 14-Sep MBA Mortgage Applications (--, --) 0700ET
- Sep 19 Q2 current account balance (-$124.1b, -103.0b) 0830ET
- Sep 19 Aug housing starts (1.168m, 1.240m) 0830ET
- Sep 19 Aug building permits (1.303m, 1.320m) 0830ET
- Sep 19 14-Sep crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w 1030ET
Eurodollar/Treasury Option Summary
Eurodollar options, Pit/Screen:
* +25,000 Short Dec 65/66/67/68 Put Condor at 1.5 vs 9687/0.33% vs Short Dec 71
calls
* +10,000 Oct 73 Straddle at 4.75
* +9,000 Short Dec 71 calls at 4 vs 88.5/0.21%, >+25k traded so far today
* 4,000 Green Jun 66/71 call over risk reversal at 2.5
* 5,500 Dec 72 puts at 1 vs 9738/0.10%
* +7,000 Short Dec 66/67/68 put tree at 4
* +10,000 Short Dec 71 calls at 4 vs 9689/0.21%
* +20,000 Short Mar 65 puts at 3.5 vs 8.5/0.10%
* +10,000 Mar 68 puts at 1 vs 9716.5/0.05%, note +2,000 bought in pit, BLOCK
* 5,000 Dec 72 puts at 1 vs 9737.5/0.10%
TSY OPTIONS:
* +3,000 TYZ 119.5/122.5 call sprd at 28
* -15,346 TY Week1 119 puts vs TYV 119.5 puts at 9, BLOCK
* 13,000 TY Week1 119 puts at 25 vs 30.5/0.52%
--MNI Chicago Bureau; +1 630-698-0154; email: ryan.martin@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.