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US Yields Continue March Higher, But USD Unphased

FOREX
  • The dollar takes up the midpoint of the G10 table so far Monday, shrugging off a continued rise in the US 10y yield, which rose to another recovery high at 4.4520% today as markets continue to gravitate toward fewer Fed rate cuts this year than initially envisaged. Just over 2 x 25bps rate cuts are now priced for this calendar year, down from over seven rate cuts priced at the beginning of 2024.
  • CHF is the poorest performer so far, a move that's keeping the uptrend in EUR/CHF underpinned. Cycle highs at 0.9849 remain the bull trigger, a break above which puts the cross at the best levels since April last year.
  • Scandi currencies are among the session's best performers, with NOK shrugging off the pullback in oil prices. EUR/NOK trades close to last week's lows, with the striking of a sizeable wage deal with labour unions adding to domestic inflationary pressure and possibly restricting the Norges Bank's space with which to ease policy this year.
  • The schedule for Monday is typically muted, with few datapoints for markets to digest ahead of the US CPI report on Wednesday. Central banks are similarly quiet, however BoE's Breeden and Fed's Goolsbee set to make appearances.
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