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US Yields Finished Lower Despite Powell Push Back On March Rate Cut

US TSYS
TYH4 is trading at 112-16+, + 06 from NY closing levels.
Busy night for US data and treasuries with ADP Employment data out early, futures gained after lower than expected ADP Employment Change: 107k vs. 135k est (prior down-revised to 158k from 164k). Further supported after Tsy Quarterly Refunding announcement and Employment Cost Index at 0.9% vs. 1.0% est. As widely expected, the FOMC left the funds rate unchanged at 5.25%‑5.50%. Fed Chair Powell said he doesn't think the Fed will have the confidence to cut by the March meeting.
  • Treasury futures saw some volatility as expected post the FOMC announcement trading from 112-13+ down to 112-01+, though quickly reversed course to trade strong into the close and have continued higher post the close (TYH4 112-19 + 31+, 10Y yield 3.912% low).
  • Cash bond yields are lower with the 2Y at 4.207%, -12.8bps , while the 10Y trades at 3.912%, -11.9bps.
  • Post US close, there has been some large block buying in the 5Y Futures, with 5,000 contracts at 108-18.
  • Data Tonight: Weekly Claims, Flash PMIs, ISMs, followed by Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday
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