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USD/Asia Pairs Lower, China PMIs Print Monday

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs are mostly lower, in line with USD softness against the majors. This comes despite negative cross asset leads, with major regional equity indices lower, while UST yields recovered from earlier lows. Next Monday official China PMI prints for October are due. The focus is likely to be on whether the services sector can remain in expansion territory (consensus is 50.1 versus 50.6 last month). The manufacturing PMI is expected to slip to 49.9 from 50.1 prior.

  • USD/CNH couldn't get above 7.2700, despite a fresh cyclical higher in the fix (near 7.1700). We last sat back under 7.2400, shrugging off weaker equity market sentiment. The market is likely to watch for potential shadow intervention again ahead of the 4:30pm onshore spot closing level.
  • 1 month USD/KRW is sub 1420, although dips towards 1415 were supported, keeping us within recent ranges. The Kospi is lower (-0.55%) amid tech headwinds from the US, while offshore investors have sold local shares today (-$142.1mn so far). The authorities expect some relief for next week's CPI print (5% handle expected for the second consecutive month).
  • Spot USD/IDR has shed 40 figs so far as the greenback underperforms. We were last at 15528, with bears looking for a move towards Oct 5 low of IDR15,162, while bullish focus falls on Oct 21 cycle high of IDR15,634. The next local data release of note is October CPI report, due November 1.
  • PHP has continued to firm. USD/PHP is back to 57.86, -0.37 figs for the session. The 50-day MA sits at 57.787. We continue to move away the 59.00 figure level. Fitch affirmed the Philippines at "BBB" with a negative outlook, noting that this reflects the nation's medium-term growth prospects, fiscal adjustment path and external buffers.
  • USD/THB is also trending lower, last at 37.685, -0.13 figs. Foreign investors were net buyers of $65.11mn in Thai stocks Thursday, representing a fifth consecutive day of inflows amid renewed offshore demand. The BoT will publish the weekly update on foreign reserves today. The stack of foreign reserves shrank in the week through Oct 14 to the lowest level since early Sep 2017.

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