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USD Bounces Well, Runs Against Month-End Assumption

  • Running against most sell-side month-end models, the USD firmed smartly into the Friday close, running against the trend observed across the week.
  • This put EUR/USD through first key support, with the pair looking to close back below the 100-dma of 1.2056. The downside pressure Friday makes the formation of a death cross (50-dma < 200-dma) more likely in the coming week, which would be the first since June 2018.
  • CAD moved from strength-to-strength, with a market-wide commodity rally helping support oil- and commodity-tied currencies. This puts USD/CAD again at multi-year lows, narrowing the gap with key support at the 2018 low of 1.2251.
  • Focus in the coming week turns to the US jobs report. Having added close to a million jobs last month, the US are expected to keep up the pace in April, with 965k jobs added over the month. The unemployment rate is seen edging lower by 0.3 ppts, dropping to a new post-pandemic low of 5.7%.
  • Outside of data, central bank decisions are due from Australia, the UK, Brazil and Turkey.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |

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