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USD/CNH Approaching Golden Cross, Possible Inverted H&S

CHINA
  • Technical indicators on USD/CNH are turning increasingly bullish as downside momentum in the cross stalls out in 2021.
  • Since the start of the year, price action has been broadly contained in the 6.40-6.60 range after CNH mounted an impressive +11.64% gain vs the USD from late April to its peak at the start of June 2021.
  • The cross is now facing renewed upside pressure as high frequency economic indicators show signs of faltering growth, alongside a massive domestic crackdown on the tech industry and the Fed looks to taper asset purchases by year end. Moreover, the recent RRR cut and potential expectations for more in the pipeline have also added to CNH weakness in the near-term.
  • On the tech front, the cross is facing a bullish golden cross pattern with the 50dma looking to summit the 200dma in the coming sessions.
  • RSI oscillator momentum remains bullish after finding support at the 50 line in July & August, potentially signalling scope for more upside. Tentative signs of a bullish inverted H&S Pattern also appearing on the daily chart – but is less clear cut.
  • Key levels on the topside seen at the 23.6% Fib (6.557), lateral resistance at 6.60 and the 38.2% Fib at 6.6799 which aligns with support and resistance levels in 2019 & 2017. A move below 6.45 would negate these bullish patterns.

  • USD/CNH


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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