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USD/CNH Back Sub Simple 200-day MA, Nov Credit Softer Than Expected

CNH

In line with softer broader USD sentiment post the FOMC, USD/CNH fell sharply through Wednesday US trade. From near 7.1900 we fell back to the 7.1350/55 region, a CNH gain of 0.77%. We last tracked near 7.1370 in early Thursday trade. Earlier USD/CNY closed much higher at 7.1708. The CNY NEER (J.P. Morgan Index) was still +0.29% higher for the session.

  • For USD/CNH we are now back sub the simple 200-day MA (7.1492). Early Dec lows were at 7.1237, while late Nov lows were at 7.1126 (29th). Recent resistance appeared near the 7.2000 level.
  • Late yesterday we had Nov aggregate finance figures print. They were weaker than expected (2450bn yuan, versus 2595bn yuan forecast), as were new loans (1090bn yuan, 1300bn yuan forecast).
  • Calls are likely to continue for greater policy support, but recent commentary has focused on improving credit efficiency (as opposed to large scale stimulus).
  • Note tomorrow we get the 1yr MLF decision (no change expected), along with Nov activity figures.
  • To recap in the equity space, onshore equities finished poorly yesterday, down nearly 1.7% for the CSI 300. The index is still above recent cyclical lows.
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