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USD/CNH Can't Breach 7.1900, Equity Underperformance Continues

CNH

USD/CNH largely tracked a sideways range post the Asia close on Wednesday. The pair got close to 7.1900 but didn't breach this figure level. In early Thursday trade we track at 7.1840, little changed for yesterday's session. Spot USD/CNY ended near 7.1730, while the NEER (J.P. Morgan Index) was around flat at 123.28.

  • For USD/CNH the simple 50-day MA is very close to current spot levels. Mid Dec highs at 7.2000 are also within sight. On the downside, note the simple 200-day near 7.1760.
  • Near term focus is likely to rest on potential monetary stimulus. Note we have the 1yr MLF decision on Monday. We also still await the Dec aggregate credit/new loans data.
  • Tomorrow sees Dec inflation out, with both CPI and PPI forecast to remain in negative territory in y/y terms. Dec trade figures are also due.
  • Equity sentiment remains fairly poor, despite fresh stimulus calls. To recap, the CSI 300 closed down -0.47%, while in Wednesday US trade the Golden Dragon index lost a further 0.70% (the index down for the last 5 sessions).
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