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USD/CNH Off Record Highs, But NEER Losses Accelerate

CNH

USD/CNH got to fresh record highs in overnight trading, close to 7.3750, before broader USD weakness took the pair lower. We are now back at 7.3135/40, little change from NY closing levels. If we see further downside 7.3000 could be a support zone, while highs from last week around the 7.2800/50 region could also be in focus.

  • Through yesterday's session CNH gained just under 0.2% against the USD, lagging the 1.00% decline in the DXY index.
  • This leaves the yuan weaker in NEER terms. The J.P. Morgan CNY NEER fell a further 0.59% yesterday, the 7th straight fall for the index. We are close to YTD lows for the metric, but remain well above 2020 lows, see the chart below.
  • The China Golden Dragon index rebounded 4.55% overnight, recouping some of the 14.4% drop from Monday's session. Onshore and HK equities finished slightly lower yesterday in volatile trading conditions.
  • Onshore spot ended yesterday 7.2687, the 4:30pm level was much higher though at 7.3085. Some offset should come from the weaker USD overnight in terms of today's fixing outcome.
  • The authorities vowed to continue with foreign exchange reform and keep the currency stable at a reasonable level (see this link for more details).

Fig 1: J.P. Morgan CNY NEER

Source: J.P. Morgan/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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