USD/CNH Up On Multiple Headwinds, PHP Slumps Ahead Of BSP Later This Week

USD/Asia pairs are mostly higher today, albeit to varying degrees, CNH has weakened modestly post a slump in credit data (released over the weekend), which is raising growth concerns. Fresh US tariffs are another potential headwind. PHP has fallen sharply, we have the BSP meeting later this week, although no changes are expected. Still to come today is the Indian CPI print for April.

• USD/CNH has firmed back through 7.2400, only a modest loss but we are back above the simple 200-day MA and continue to unwind losses from early May. Weekend credit data was noticeably weak and raises the prospect of fresh easing measures. Plans around US tariff announcements were also discussed and will be reportedly released by the US this week. We also had plans announced around ultra-long bond issuance today, which kicks off this Friday. Still, the weaker credit data from the weekend has outweighed. The 10yr bond yield is down a further 3bps.
• 1 month USD/KRW found selling interest above 1370 in earlier trade. We last tracked around 1366, +0.20% stronger in won terms versus levels from the end of last week. Onshore equities are weaker, the Kospi off 0.40%. We did have the first 10-days of trade data for May print, which showed export growth at +16% y/y, so this may have provided some offset at the margin.
• Spot PHP is around 0.60% weaker. USD/PHP was last in the 57.75/80 region. We aren't too far away from late April highs near 58.00. There may be some speculation of a dovish tilt from the BSP this week, given last week's lower domestic growth figures and modest downside CPI surprise. Our sense is that it's too soon for such a shift.
• USD/IDR spot has drifted higher, up around 0.20% to be last in the 16080/85 region. This is line with regional trends. Earlier the April consumer confidence print came in at 127.7, up firmly from March levels, but still sub mid 2023 highs.
• Elsewhere, the USD is mostly firmer but gains have been modest at this stage.