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Market Looking For Improved China Data Next Week

CHINA

Next week's data calendar brings some important releases in China. Note some of the Bloomberg consensus estimates quoted below could change by next week as more economists submit forecasts.

  • Monday has the wrap up of the PMI prints for May, with the Caixin services out. The market expects a 46.2 print, versus 36.2 last month.
  • Tuesday delivers FX reserves, which will probably have a little more focus than usual, given some capital outflow pressures in May. Still, the market only expects headlines reserves to dip to $3100bn from $3119.7bn in April.
  • Trade figures print on Thursday. Export and import growth are expected to rebound. Exports to 8.1% from 3.9% and imports to 2.9% from 0.0%. The trade balance is expected to nudge back up to $58bn, from $51.12bn.
  • From Thursday onwards aggregate finance and new loans data can print (the 9th to the 15th of June is the release window for this data). Again, the market is looking for improved outcomes, with aggregate finance to 1955.1bn from 910.2bn in April. New loans are expected too nearly double 1211.5bn versus 645.4bn previously).
  • Finally, on Friday CPI and PPI outcomes are out. The PPI is expected to ease to 6.5% YoY from 8.0% YoY, while CPI pressures are expected to tick higher to 2.2% from 2.1% in YoY terms.
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